National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS01 KWBC 190735
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 19 2024 - 12Z Sun Apr 21 2024

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms push into the
central/southern Appalachians and Southeast today...

...Wet snow and wintry mix over the central High Plains on
Saturday as heavy rain threat develops over parts of Texas and the
lower Mississippi Valley...

...Unseasonably warm across much of the South and Southwest as
below average temperatures expand throughout the Great Plains and
Midwest...

The main weather feature and focus for showers and thunderstorms
through this weekend will be a cold front progressing across the
East and stalling between the Southeast and southern Texas.
Unsettled weather will start the short range forecasting period
located across the central/southern Appalachians and Southeast.
These locations will have the greatest chances for isolated
thunderstorms to become strong enough to produce locally damaging
wind gusts and hail. Elsewhere, light showers are expected to
extend into the Northeast through tonight.

Precipitation is also expected to become more widespread and
increase in intensity throughout the central High Plains and
Colorado Front Range by tonight. A mix of rain and snow is likely,
with heavy snow (greater than 4 inches) most likely along the
Front Range and lesser amounts into the foothills on eastward into
the High Plains. Snow chances should gradually subside by Saturday
evening, but chilly temperatures will remain across much of the
Great Plains on Sunday.

Meanwhile, instances of heavy rain and scattered flash flooding
are possible on Saturday across parts of the southern Plains and
lower Mississippi Valley as numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms develop to the north of a stationary front.
Repeating rounds of intense rainfall and areas with wet antecedent
ground conditions have prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall between central Texas and the ArkLaMiss region.
Fortunately, this system is forecast to quickly exit to the east
on Sunday and shift shower and thunderstorm chances to the
Southeast, limiting the flooding threat somewhat.

A quick-moving system will also swing light precipiation into the
Northwest this weekend, which will continue to promote above
average temperatures over the Southwest. Spring warmth will also
be found throughout much of the South today and Saturday for
places avoiding afternoon rain. For a majority of the Nation;
however, well below average temperatures will remain locked in
place this weekend underneath high pressure streaming in from
Canada. Highs are anticipated to range from the 40s in the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest to the 60s from the Mid-Atlantic
to the Tennessee Valley. Lows into the 30s could produce frost
and/or freeze conditions in the Midwest as well.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$