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000
FXUS62 KTAE 220125
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
925 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The forecast remains on track with only minor changes made to
account for the latest trends. The biggest chance was taking the
mention of rain out of the forecast for the southeastern Florida
Big Bend as the front has fully cleared the region. A clearing sky
is expected the rest of the night as temperatures settle in the
middle 40s to middle 50s from northwest to southeast across the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Shortwave trough passes through this afternoon and at the surface,
the cold front is making steady progress through the forecast area.
Around 3 pm ET it was located roughly from Tyndall AFB northeast to
Tifton. Winds have a little bit stronger this afternoon behind the
front with occasional gusts up to 25 or 30 mph from the north. These
gusts are confined just along and behind the front with gusts
dropping to around 15 to 20 mph after the front moves through. Rain
showers behind the front will persist a few hours after frontal
passage but clearing conditions were already noted across southern
Alabama and moving steadily southeast, and by Sunset most of the
rain should be through the forecast area except for the southeast
Big Bend.

For tonight, clearing conditions and cool temperatures are expected
with low temperatures generally in the upper 40s and low 50s. For
Monday, the surface high pressure fills into the region from the
west with clear skies and cooler conditions in the low to mid 70s
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A warming and moistening trend is expected through the short and
long term periods with high temperatures warming back into the mid
to upper 80s by Thursday and lasting into the weekend. Dry
conditions are expected through the next week, with no rainfall
expected. A weak front will approach the region on Thursday but
should stall out somewhere north of the area with little to no
effect on our local weather. Overall, warm but benign weather is
expected to prevail into next weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Early evening sat imagery and sfc obs show all terminals are post
frontal with a deck of MVFR stratus impacting the eastern TAF
sites. For ABY/TLH, conds improve to VFR by around 2Z while VLD
appears to remain socked in for several more hrs. Skies will
continue gradually clearing from NW to SE while northerly winds
prevail at about 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Breezy winds and building seas are expected tonight in the wake
of this afternoon`s cold front, with advisory conditions forecast
for waters west of Apalachicola and cautionary conditions east of
Apalachicola. Winds and seas are forecast to subside late Monday
into Tuesday. Fairly benign boating conditions are expected
thereafter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Cold front moves through this afternoon with drier northerly flow
moving in for Monday. Fire weather concerns will be on the low end
except high dispersions across the region on Monday. Warmer
conditions move in for the upcoming week and no rain is anticipated
for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Minor to moderate flooding remains on the Withlacoochee River this
afternoon although levels continue to fall. Minor flooding
continues along the St Marks River, Aucilla River, and Suwannee
River as well, with further rises expected along the Suwannee
River over the next week. The only rain chances in the forecast
are today, and totals are not expected to be enough to produce any
meaningful riverine response.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   53  73  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  73  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        47  70  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        49  70  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  72  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    55  75  50  79 /   0  10   0   0
Apalachicola  55  72  58  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ750-752-770-
     772.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Reese
NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Merrifield/Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield