795
FXUS64 KTSA 040522
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 956 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms moving north into central Oklahoma at
this time will likely dissipate or remain west of our area. The
current forecast is on track with the MCS currently across western
Kansas moving east southeast into parts of northeast Oklahoma
late tonight or early Saturday morning. The only change to the
forecast this evening is to remove the low pops in parts of
western Arkansas tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A complex of storms is expected to develop across Kansas this
evening and progress east southeastward overnight tonight. the
leading edge of this MCS will begin to nudge into parts of
northeast Oklahoma by early Saturday morning with some gusty winds
possible along the leading edge along with heavy rainfall.
Overall, the complex should be in a weakening state as it moves
through northeast Oklahoma throughout the rest of the morning
hours. Still locally heavy downpours will be possible with the
stronger cores with high moisture content over the region. The
rest of the day Saturday will see lower chances (20-40%) for some
lingering showers and storms in the wake of the decaying MCS and
whatever outflow boundaries are leftover from that.

Heading into Sunday, increasing chances for widespread showers and
storms are expected as a shortwave trough lifts northeastward out
of central Texas and tracks across eastern Oklahoma during the
day. The severe threat will remain low during this time, but
isolated severe potential will exists with the more persistent
updrafts. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall on top of
already very saturated soils. Rainfall throughout the last week
has been in the 5 to 7 inch range for a good chunk of eastern
Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas. Additional rainfall of 1
to 2 inches is likely for much of the area with locally higher
amounts quickly causing concern for flash flooding and flooding of
urban or low lying areas due to excessive runoff. It won`t take
much for flooding to occur, so have opted to issue a Flood Watch
for the entire forecast area given the saturated conditions and
already high rivers and streams.

The unsettled pattern will continue into next week as an upper low
ejects out into the Central to Northern Plains and meanders for
several days. This will allow for moderately strong westerly to
southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the Southern Plains and
last through much of the week. Concurrently, a surface cold front
will drop southeastward into Kansas and become stalled, while a
dryline extend southward into Oklahoma and Texas. These areas will
serve as the focus for daily shower and storm chances for much of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The strong flow aloft
combined with a warm and moist boundary layer will support severe
potential with any storms that develop. Monday will be the first
day to watch in the period as the main upper trough swings into
the Plains. Best storm chances will exist across northern Oklahoma
closer to the large scale ascent as an expanding elevated mixed
layer (EML) spread over the Southern Plains likely capping
convection further south along the dryline. Still, a couple storms
will be possible along the dryline with all severe hazards
possible. Details will continue to come into better focus as
Monday gets closer. The surface front is progged to drop down into
eastern Oklahoma on Wednesday, which would enhance shower and
storm chances Wednesday afternoon as well. Again, all severe
hazards appear possible at this time. Everyday next week through
at least Thursday, looks like a day to watch as the environment
will be supportive of severe potential each day. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Ongoing storms over north central OK are likely to weaken as they
spread toward NE OK terminals, however additional showers and
storms may expand later this morning along the trailing cold
front. The forecast will account for this possibility with at
least isolated to scattered convection spreading eastward through
the early to late morning hours. Periodic MVFR ceilings are also
possible generally area wide late tonight through the morning.
Storm chances continue through the day with the focus being the
remnant outflow / weak cold front. More organized and widespread
convection is expected into the region this evening into tomorrow
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  73  62  81 /  60  80  10  40
FSM   65  76  64  83 /  50  90  20  30
MLC   63  75  63  81 /  70  90  10  30
BVO   55  72  58  80 /  50  80  10  40
FYV   60  74  59  81 /  50  90  30  40
BYV   60  72  60  80 /  40  80  30  30
MKO   62  72  62  80 /  60  90  20  30
MIO   58  71  60  80 /  40  80  20  40
F10   61  72  62  80 /  70  90  10  30
HHW   65  75  64  79 /  60  90  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening
     for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07