Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251740
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1240 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Updates were primarily focused on PoPs this afternoon. The current
batch of rain extending along a line from NE TX well into S MO
continues to very slowly shift east this morning. That being
said, widespread light to moderate rain is expected into the
afternoon hours for SE OK and W-central AR. In the meantime, a
cold front currently positioned over western Oklahoma will make
its way eastward, entering the FA by mid afternoon.

As this feature progresses through E OK and NW AR late this
afternoon and evening, CAMs have suggested potential for
convective development along the boundary. Have increased PoPs to
reflect this potential, generally east of Highway 75 in E OK.
Given marginal instability, cold temps aloft, and plenty of shear
to work with, it is not out of question for a storm or two to
produce marginally severe hail or wind gusts, along with a very
low tornado threat.

Otherwise, clouds should tend to at least partially clear from
west to east this afternoon, and high temps are still forecast to
climb into the mid-upper 60s across E OK, especially for those who
experience the most sun. Temps will likely be held down for
portions of far SE OK and NW AR where precipitation and widespread
clouds will linger much of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Mid-level cyclogenesis is underway across KS, in the midst of a
large and powerful upper trough moving into the Plains this
morning. At the surface, low pressure was nearly co-located with
the developing mid-level cyclone over SW KS. This low will track
east-northeast toward KC today and tonight, while a cold front
attendant to the low sweeps east across the region late today into
tonight. The current band of rain and some storms over SE OK and
NW AR will continue to shift east and exit later this morning.
Current expectation is that clouds will clear in its wake and
allow for some instability to develop by late afternoon across far
eastern OK into western AR. CAMs continue to suggest that isolated
to scattered showers and isolated storms will develop ahead of the
front in this zone. With the cold temps aloft /H5 on the order of
-20C/ any of the stronger cores could produce some marginally
 severe hail and a low tornado threat, especially across far NE
 OK into far NW AR closer to surface low where low level
 hodographs show some curvature. Finally, a few snowflakes could
 graze areas near the KS border to the north and west of Tulsa
 this evening in the wrap-around band of the strong upper system.

Colder air will be ushered into the region late today and tonight
behind the front, with overnight lows forecast to dip down into
the low to mid 30s across NE OK and NW AR. It is officially the
growing season and thus frost/freeze season as well, but
uncertainties regarding a large area of low clouds that are
expected to wrap around the low pressure system leads me to hold
off on any headlines at this time.

There were wind gusts to near 40 mph earlier at KFYV and KXNA, but
winds have since backed off and there is no expectation for winds
to strengthen back to advisory criteria. Therefore, the wind
advisory will be let go at forecast issuance this morning.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

It`s largely a quiet extended forecast in the wake of the
current system. The potential for another freeze exists across NE
OK and NW AR on Wednesday morning, but again some uncertainties
exist with low clouds as we still remain under the influence of
the central CONUS upper trough. Another wave will pass across the
southern Plains on the back side of the central CONUS trough
Wednesday, but expectations are that this system will lack
moisture and thus rain chances are too low to mention. A fast
warm-up is expected after this wave (and the larger parent trough)
passes for the end of the week on into the weekend. Low rain
chances return by early next week with a weak front.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Widespread rain and occasionally reduced visibilities are ongoing
for AR sites this afternoon. Expect coverage to begin to decrease
by 20-21z as precipitation moves off to the east. Additional
showers and storms may develop in E OK along an approaching cold
front near 21z. Did not include precip mention for E OK sites at
this time as development is expected to occur after the front
passes these sites. If development occurs further west than
forecast, a brief shower or thunderstorm may impact OK sites near
21/22z. Did include TEMPOs for AR sites between 23-03z for
potential thunderstorm impacts. Winds will shift from south to
west with the passage of the cold front with gusts up to 20-25
kts. Low clouds are forecast to fill in overnight mainly across NE
OK and NW AR, potentially bringing a period of MVFR cigs.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected following the front this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  53  31  58 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   38  56  35  62 /  50   0   0   0
MLC   36  55  33  60 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   33  52  26  58 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   33  51  28  60 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   33  49  30  57 /  30   0   0   0
MKO   35  52  31  58 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   35  49  27  56 /  30   0   0   0
F10   34  53  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   38  56  35  60 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...43
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43


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