Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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699 FXUS64 KTSA 070320 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1020 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Isolated convection forming ahead of the main squall line will pose the highest risk for strong tornadoes over the next few hours. Otherwise, squall line will sweep across much of the area except possibly far southeast Oklahoma overnight, with damaging winds and some embedded tornado threat. Made minor changes to pops over the next few hours, with the rest of the forecast on track at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails. The next chance of storms will come on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. These storms will likely fire up earlier in the day near the cold front approaching Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma by early afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this system moves through the area as well. Dry weather is forecast later in the week and into the weekend with temperatures near normal for this time of year. Shower and storm chances increase late in the weekend with the approach of a mid-level shortwave. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Low stratus has more or less risen above 3000 feet, though a few obs below that can be expected this evening. May also see a few showers through the early part of the forecast across far eastern OK and western AR. Severe thunderstorms ongoing across western OK will move into northeast OK while organizing into a squall line, generally in the 02-04z time frame. This squall line will have potential for dangerous wind gusts and large hail, with specific threat becoming more clear as they move closer to TAF sites. Farther east and south the threat of storms will persist through around 10z. MVFR ceilings will persist for a time after the storms pass, with VFR conditions return late Tuesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 83 61 83 / 90 10 10 30 FSM 69 86 65 87 / 80 10 0 60 MLC 67 85 66 86 / 70 10 0 30 BVO 55 81 56 81 / 80 10 10 20 FYV 64 83 61 83 / 80 10 10 70 BYV 64 82 59 82 / 80 10 0 70 MKO 64 81 61 84 / 90 10 10 50 MIO 61 80 58 80 / 90 10 10 60 F10 63 82 62 85 / 90 10 10 30 HHW 69 84 66 85 / 40 10 10 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ054>067. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...14