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000
FXUS65 KTWC 202003
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
103 PM MST Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with seasonable warm temperatures will continue
through the first of half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies and warming trend of
temperatures across Southeast Arizona. At the synoptic level, a
ridge is be building over the southwest region today and through
the early part of the week. Ensemble models shows the climb of
height anomalies for the next 3 days and thus allowing for warming
of temperatures. Temperatures will be climbing into the upper 80s
to mid-to-low 90s in the lower elevations through the first half
of the week. In climate perspective, that is 8-10 degrees above
seasonal normals. The latest NBM run shows large portions of
Southeast Arizona, mainly areas Tucson west, has at least 45-70%
chance of exceeding 95 degrees on Monday. Very warm indeed.

Daily winds will follow the typical daily trend of afternoon
breezes with a slight exception for the far eastern part of the
county warning area. Short term models show a steep pressure
gradient along the New Mexico border due to interaction of this
morning`s trough passage. This conditions can lead to little more
breeziness from the southeast to east, mainly in areas in or near
San Simon Valley on late Sunday afternoon and into the early
night.

Later in the week, ensemble models show a trough moving into the
region to bring breezy conditions, along with cooler temperatures
by the weekend. There is uncertainty on the timing and depth of
the trough to discern the exact impacts, such as speed. Still, it
is another April breezy weather system.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 22/00z.
SKC though 21/05z then FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru end of
valid pd. SFC winds SWLY/WLY 6-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts thru
21/03Z, then less than 10 kts overnight into Sunday morning. SFC
winds then SLY/SWLY 6-12 kts aft 21/18Z kts with gusts 15-20 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry with near to slightly above normal
temperatures into first half of next week. Minimum relative
humidity values in the afternoon between 8% and 15% each day
through early next week. Breezy southeasterly to easterly winds
late Sunday afternoon to the early night, mainly in San Simon
Valley in northeast Cochise and southeast Graham County.
Otherwise expect typical diurnal wind trends for other locations
through the first part of next week. Another period of breezy
southwesterly winds can be expected in the later half of the new
week and into the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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