417
FXUS65 KTWC 090926
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
226 AM MST Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will continue through the
weekend. High temperatures will be near normal through tomorrow,
then several degrees above normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The benign and dry weather pattern continues through
the forecast period. The low pressure system that is currently
centered over the northern AZ and southern UT border and continues
the dry westerly flow aloft. This system will shift slightly
westward today and Friday before beginning to dip slightly
southward before exiting the region by the begining of the next
week. The low pressure system does not move southward enough to
have any rain changes other than a slight chance (12%) in the
White Mountains Monday afternoon. The afternoon breeziness
continues each afternoon, with the strongest winds expected on
Saturday. With this prolonged dry pattern causing low moisture
and elevated winds continues elevated fire weather conditions,
more in the fire weather discussion.

After this system passes, there is a small shortwave trough that
passes through mid week keeping the temperatures near normal. This
will remain dry.

Looking into next weekend, ridging and warming temperatures become
the main pattern and possibly gives us the first chances for
reaching 100 degrees. Currently the NBM has a 15%, 31%, and 25%
chance for next Thursday, Friday and Saturday respectively. This
is still far out, but something to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z.
SKC thru the valid forecast period. SFC winds 12 kts or less thru
09/16Z, then becoming WLY/SWLY and increasing to 14-22 kts and
occasional gusts to around 30 kts, especially east of KTUS
including KDUG/KSAD/KALK. SFC winds then diminish aft 10/03Z
becoming 12 kts or less overnight. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will continue near be normal
through Friday. Highs then climb to 2-4 degrees above normal this
weekend. This week min RHs values will remain in the single digits
to lower teens in the valleys, with values generally in the teens
for the mountains. Breezy winds continues each afternoon,
especially areas along the AZ/NM border and areas east of Tucson
becoming light and variable overnight. The strongest of these
afternoon winds are on Saturday creating some near-critical fire
weather conditions, but is currently not widespread and last long
enough for any fire weather headlines at this time.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Tetrault

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