Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261704
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1204 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. Main
concern will be the strong wind speeds today behind a cold front.
Speeds will remain strong until around 00Z. Eventually wind speeds
will be light and variable tonight.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1100 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

UPDATE...
Have gone ahead and issued a wind advisory for the western and
central Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle.
Winds are already around 35 mph sustained in the western Oklahoma
Panhandle and latest models suggest that these winds will spread
southward with time, but the winds should start to decrease by
mid afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1005 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

UPDATE...
Vigorous upper level short wave trough over northeast Colorado
will swing southeastward through the day and evening. As this wave
moves across the eastern Panhandles this afternoon and evening it
may bring enough dynamics to help produce a few showers and
thunderstorms in these areas. Have gone ahead and added some low
chances of rain. On a side note, strong cold front is moving
through the northwest Panhandles now. Will have to watch the winds
for a brief wind advisory today in the northwest quarter of the
Panhandles.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 623 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

AVIATION...
12Z Issuance...All sites should remain VFR through the period.
Southwest winds will turn northerly after 14Z and ramp up with
gusts of 30 to 40kts with a frontal passage. Winds will ease after
02Z and be aob 10kts. Clouds will thicken during the day but
not affect cigs.

Beat

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 523 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
For this morning, will allow Frost Advisory for the OK and parts
of nrn TX Panhandles to expire on schedule at 12Z. Otherwise, for
today, a cold front will plow southeast across the fcst area with
breezy to windy conditions in its wake. Wind speeds may locally
approach advisory criteria across far western counties near the TX
and NM state line. However, confidence is low and expected duration
should be short lived. Therefore, have decided not to issue a wind
advisory with this pckg. Will defer to next shift for consideration
if conditions dictate. The associated upper level shortwave trof
is progged to dive southeast across the srn high plains this
afternoon and evening. This system may be close enuf and there may
be just enuf moisture to spark off isold tstms across far ern
zones near the OK and TX state line. The greater threat should be
further east into Oklahoma. Have kept pops below mentionable for
this pckg in ern zones. Then for tonight, lows may dip to near or
below 36 degrees again across parts of the OK Panhandle as well
as parts of the northern and perhaps western Texas Panhandle.
Another Frost Advisory may become necessary in this region late
tonight into early Friday morning, and will defer the final
decision to the next shift.

A western United States large upper level trof will establish
itself from Saturday through next Wednesday. Minor upper level
shortwave trofs embedded within the western states large trof
will be ejecting northeast across parts of the southern and
central plains durg this time period. Enuf moisture should be in
place by Saturday night to warrant slgt chc pops for showers and
tstms across western half of the OK and TX Panhandles, with slgt
chc pops spreading further east to encompass most of the area
Sunday and Sunday night.

Latest 00Z medium range models suggest that the western states
upper level trof will edge eastward some each day for Monday
through Wednesday. This trend now suggests much of our fcst area
will be dry slotted durg this time period with the tstm threat
shifting eastward to either parts of the eastern zones or even
further east into western Oklahoma. Therefore, have re-configured
pops to the above mentioned area for Monday thru Wednesday as well
as kept values to no higher than the slight chance category.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley...Moore...Sherman.

OK...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

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