Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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287
FXUS61 KCAR 261812
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
212 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift north of the area tonight followed by high
pressure Friday morning. A weak low will approach from the southwest
Friday afternoon and track north across the area Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The storm system which brought a warm rain to the area last night
and today will be tracking north into eastern Canada tonight. Some
showers will continue across the north early tonight as the upper
level trough slides east across the area. Otherwise, tonight will
become partly cloudy across the north and mostly clear Downeast. A
small ridge of high pressure will slide over the area Friday
morning bringing a mostly sunny morning. A weak wave of low
pressure quickly lifting north along the eastern edge of a
trough in the Midwest will bring increasing cloudiness Friday
afternoon with a chance of some showers late in the day. South
southeasterly winds will continue to draw moist air over the
area resulting in continued rapid snow melt over the north.
Temperatures will remain mild through Friday with lows in the
low 40s tonight and highs in the low to mid 60s on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper trof remains to our west through Saturday with southwest
flow aloft. Weak disturbances embedded in the flow aloft will
result in unsettled weather conditions Friday night with showers
expected. Rainfall Friday night will be fairly light, generally
a tenth to a third on an inch. However, the additional rainfall
coupled with continued snowmelt will result in area streams and
brooks continuing to run near bankfull. Upper low across the
Great Lakes region moves slowly east through Sunday remaining
to our west. Diurnal instabilty in association with the
approaching upper low will keep the threat of showers going into
Sunday. Again, any rainfall through the weekend will be on the
light side, but expect continue elevated flows on area rivers
and streams through the weekend. A flood watch remains up for
much of northern Maine and the central Maine highlands through
Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper
50s to lower 60s and the mid 50s to near 60 on Sunday, which is
still a bit above normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper low will still be in the vicinity of the area Sunday
night through Monday with continued unsettled weather and the
chance for showers. An upper ridge will build across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday with dry weather and much warmer
temperatures expected. Thursday will continue unseasonably warm
for this time of year in advance of an approaching cold front.
Highs by Thursday could climb well into the 70s and possibly
toward the 80 degree mark in a few places. This will be highly
dependent on the timing of the approaching cold front later
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR conditions across the north and MVFR Conditions
Downeast are expected this evening. Conditions will improve to
VFR Downeast tonight and MVFR over the north, then VFR across
the entire area by early Friday morning. However, some patchy
fog may affect some area Downeast at times very late tonight.
VFR conditions on Friday may lower to MVFR in lower clouds and
some showers late in the day.

SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions are possible, especially during the
daylight hours, in showers, especially Friday night. Otherwise,
it will remain VFR much of the time.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA for seas will continue tonight into Friday for
wave heights up to 10 feet tonight and 6 to 8 feet on Friday.
Fog may continue to reduce visibilities at times tonight.


SHORT TERM: Small craft advisories will likely be needed for
seas Friday night through Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers continue to rapidly rise in response to rainfall and snowmelt
last night into today. Many of the mainstem rivers are expected to
peak Friday afternoon into early Saturday with minor flooding
possible on some of the northern rivers. A flood watch continues
into this evening Downeast for the potential of small stream
rises and low lying flooding following the heavy rain last night
and this morning. The flood watch over central and northern
areas will continue into Saturday for the potential of some
flooding on the larger rivers.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MEZ001>006-010-011-
     031.
     Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ015>017-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Bloomer/Duda
Marine...Bloomer/Duda
Hydrology...Bloomer



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