Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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214
FXUS61 KCTP 192204
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
604 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will build into the area for the
next 4 or 5 days. After a cold day on Friday, there will be a
gradual warming trend over the weekend which will continue
through the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
Post-frontal flow is taking over with very dry air/dewpoints
arriving as expected. Gusts into the 30s still possible this
evening in the Laurels, but the wind should get less gusty for
the night. Little left on the radar and the visible loop from
GOES-E shows a neat view of two distinct layers of clouds
perpendicular to each other over Central PA. The lower deck is
being scoured out. Other than some widely sct SHSN or flurries
NW this evening/early tonight, it will be dry. Will not mention
any accums.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Wind keeps up, but gets less gusty overnight. This creates a
dilemma for overnight temp forecast. The mixed atmos will keep
the temps from bottoming out. However, the overall brute-force
cooling by the airmass arriving will drop temps in the SE to
near or slightly below freezing. Only the metro/urban areas will
stay above freezing. Some sheltered valleys may get into the
u20s.

The upper trough swings totally out on Friday with NW flow left
for the day. This will keep it much colder than normal for
Friday. Wind stays up in the teens during the day. Good news is
that a giant sfc high pressure area over the upper
plains/midwest slides in and begins to modify under the April
sun this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Friday and beyond, there will be a welcome break of lighter
wind, sunshine and milder temps as a large area of high pressure
moves out of the midwest.

Another series of upper lows look to move across the south and
into the eastern US next week. This may spread some
precipitation toward our region into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving and strengthening storm system over the Canadian
Maritimes will bring breezy conditions to central Pennsylvania
through Friday. Northwest winds will abate a bit after sunset,
but Bufkit soundings support gusts of around 25kts returning by
late Friday morning.

Low level moisture ascending the Appalachians will produce
predominantly MVFR cigs over the northwest mountains (KBFD)
tonight, while areas further south along the Appalachians
(KJST) may experience tempo MVFR.

Any MVFR cigs should mix out by late morning, with widespread
VFR a near certainty by Friday afternoon, as high pressure
approaches from the Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...VFR/no sig wx.

Tues...VFR. SHRA poss, mainly S.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ036-057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Dangelo/Fitzgerald



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