Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

One vort lobe associated with a larger upper level storm system
has rotated across western Kansas, bringing rainfall and a few
embedded thunderstorms to the area. The next vort lobe was
approaching the southern high plains early this morning and will
eject northeastward into the southern plains today. Most of the
rainfall with this system will be to the south and east, but south
central Kansas including Medicine Lodge will receive some rain
with this system through early this evening. Highs today will be
held down by cloud cover and should stay at or below 50 degrees.
Low level cloud cover will remain across western Kansas tonight so
that lows should stay in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. If
some clearing does occur toward morning across western Kansas
then temperatures could fall into the mid 30s in places such as
Scott City and Dighton.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The next shortwave trough will come into the Pacific Northwest by
early Sunday, approach the high plains by late Monday and then
Move across western Kansas Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some shower
activity is possible with this system as it passes but it does
not look like a heavy rain event. Another upper level storm system
is expected to move southeastward out of Canada into the plains
by Thursday. Some shower activity is also possible with this
system on Tuesday; but no big precipitation event is expected.
Modest temperature variations can be expected since a cold front
will be associated with each of these systems; but no arctic air
will be involved. A warm up can be expected Sunday and Monday with
highs reaching in the 60s to near 70 degrees by Monday; but then
the next cold front will retard this recovery and knock highs back
a few degrees on Tuesday. Another warm up can be expected
Wednesday before the next cold front arrives Thursday. It is
unclear how strong this front will be and whether it will have a
significant impact on high temperatures. The upper level pattern
by next weekend is uncertain as the various models show
significant disagreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

RAP, NAM and GFS bufr soundings were all in good agreement with
low clouds hanging tough across western Kansas through 12z
Sunday. Ceilings will gradually improve through the day but not
much. The visibilities and ceilings today and early this evening
will also be variable between LIFR and IFR due to intermittent
light rain showers. Will not get too detailed on this since timing
of this will be difficult and fluctuate frequently. Will however
provide a trend of improving conditions. After midnight a more
noticeable improvement in ceilings can be expected but still MVFR
conditions can be expected through early Sunday morning. The winds
will be northerly at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  37  60  38 /  80  20   0   0
GCK  48  36  60  36 /  50  20   0   0
EHA  51  36  63  39 /  30  10   0   0
LBL  51  38  62  38 /  40  10   0   0
HYS  47  36  59  40 /  80  20   0   0
P28  51  40  62  43 /  80  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert



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