Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
613 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

Weather message of the day: Hot and humid weather expected today and
Memorial Day.

Upper level ridging remains overhead, with southwesterly flow at the
surface, both contributing to these well above normal temperatures.
Areas across northwest MO and northeast KS are expected to see
temperatures approaching 100, with the rest of the area seeing the
mid 90s. Heat indices are going to be in the upper 90s across the
entire area and will likely reach 100 in some spots, including the
downtown KC area. This will be the warmest day (temperature and heat
index-wise) of the year so far for most of the area. So again, take
frequent breaks from the sun, wear light-colored clothing, and drink
plenty of water. Temperatures Monday should be a little cooler,
with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the mid
90s.

Isolated diurnal storms are possible again this afternoon, but it
should be limited to the far eastern sections of the forecast area.
Multiple short-term models show a small surface trough axis and
weak surface convergence over this area. Additionally, sounding
data indicates these areas will approach or reach their convective
temperatures this afternoon. SBCAPE will be around 3000 J/kg again
with deep layer shear between 15 kts and 20 kts. Therefore, storms
should generally be sub-severe, but given what we saw yesterday,
can`t rule out one or two storms becoming strong enough to produce
severe hail and gusty winds. Storm activity should diminish
around sunset.

The upper level pattern starts to change Tuesday with the closed
low, currently over the western U.S., moving through the
north-central U.S. and remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto moving
north into the TN River Valley. These features will provide storm
chances in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. The subtropical
remnants should eventually become absorbed into the closed low,
and move northeast out of the area. A shortwave trough, rounding a
strong upper level high, centered over Mexico, looks to be on
their heels though, continuing storm chances through the end of
the work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Diurnal cumulus
is possible during the afternoon hours. Everyone should remain
dry, with the exception of those in our far eastern counties, who
could see an isolated storm or two during the afternoon hours. Winds
should shift to the west during the daylight hours, then they are
expected to shift back to the south after sunset. Winds could be
variable at times, but they will remain light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ104-105.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ028-029-037-043.

&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana



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