Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 240039
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
839 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will build over the Mid-Atlantic
through the end of the week, then move offshore this weekend. Low
pressure may approach the area from the south early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Surface cool front has continued to push south into North
Carolina. Dry weather is anticipated overnight. Except for a few
high cirrus, a mainly clear night is expected. Winds will be
light to calm but with lower dew points any fog should be
limited to river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The center of high pressure will move overhead later in the day
Thursday into Thursday night before moving offshore Friday. In the
meantime, we can enjoy dry conditions Thursday into Friday.
As we get into late Friday and Friday night and looking out west
into the Potomac Highlands, we could encounter a shower or
two; otherwise, dry conditions for all.

Dewpoint temperatures will be in the lower 50s Thursday versus the
lower 60s that we experienced this afternoon. This should make
conditions a little more comfortable. Temperatures both Thursday and
Friday will reach the lower to middle 80s with increasing humidity
expected Friday around the back side of the area of high pressure.
Low temperatures Thursday night expected to be in the middle 50s to
upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday into Sunday, a high pressure system will be located off the
Atlantic coast near Bermuda. This will lead to a south to
southwesterly flow which will work to funnel tropical moisture
into the region. Temperatures rising up into the mid to upper
80s on Saturday and Sunday coupled with tropical moisture could
lead to the formation of convective showers and thunderstorms
which may produce heavy showers.

Monday through Tuesday, a weak boundary will approach from the west.
A south to southwesterly flow will continue the flow of tropical
moisture into the region. High temperatures will be in the low to
mid 80s on Monday. The approaching frontal boundary on Monday will
act as a convergence zone which may allow for some forcing to cause
the formation of storms and showers. The combination of tropical
moisture and the boundary will lead to a chance for thunderstorms
and showers on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR expected through Friday night. A little patchy fog is
possible mainly in river valleys tonight but should stay VFR at
TAF sites. Otherwise just a few high cirrus as high pressure
builds in from the Great Lakes. Winds light/variable tonight
become N then NE Thu generally less than 10 kts, then light
variable Fri night as high pressure continues its trek over the
Mid-Atlantic.

The combination of tropical moisture and rising temperatures up
into the mid 80s will lead to an environment that could be
conducive for the formation of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the weekend. Some restrictions are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA dropped at 6 PM. Light winds tonight, then northerly to
northeasterly around 10 knots Thursday but below SCA criteria as
high pressure moves overhead.

Some of the wider waters of the Bay may come close to SCA
criteria Friday night as southerly flow increases on the back
side of the high as it moves offshore.

Over the weekend, winds will be out of the south which may lead
to the need for a Small Craft Advisory. Chances for showers will
increase as high pressure shifts into the western Atlantic.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/JMG
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/JMG



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