Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 202335 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
635 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Increasing clouds on Saturday with chances of rain picking up, from
west to east, as a weather system moves into the region. Winds will
be east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Toward Saturday morning VFR
ceilings will be seen with isolated showers late morning and into
the afternoon in the west. Later on Saturday, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible at all Tafs. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

An upper ridge continues over the Plains this afternoon and will
move east into the Midwest tonight. An upper low in the Rockies
this evening will move east in the progressive flow to the Plains
on Saturday. This upper low will stretch from Nebraska to north
Texas by Saturday afternoon...then move through Arkansas Sunday.

Strong high pressure will continue over the Great Lakes through the
weekend. This is going to keep the incoming system from Texas to the
south of Arkansas. Moisture will increase through Saturday across
the state. Rain chances will increase Saturday, especially in the
afternoon. There will be some thunderstorms, mainly south. No severe
weather is expected at this time. The rain will decrease from west
to east Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s and
then upper 40s to upper 50s Saturday night. Highs Friday will be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s, then upper 50s to lower 70s on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Models continue to advertise an overly progressive pattern with
three separate systems to deal with in the extended period. Models
this afternoon are all in decent agreement synoptically but the
spread between solutions increases as the period progresses with
some significant differences by Friday. Still feel the best course
of action is to blend forecast solutions through the period with a
slight lean towards the somewhat more consistent ECMWF.

Period initiates with the upper low located over eastern Arkansas
with the GFS having the center of circulation a little further to
the south than the ECMWF. Surface reflection will be along the gulf
coast along with the associated cold front. Plenty of moisture will
still be wrapping around the upper low Sunday night for a continuing
chance of generally light showers. The best chances will be over the
east, closest to the center of the low.

Feature will slowly progress east by Monday morning with decreasing
precipitation chances over the west but enough moisture and dynamics
remain for additional showers over primarily the northeast. After a
brief period of drying, another front will move through somewhere in
the mid week time frame with another boundary expected Thursday
night and into Friday.

Model differences are quite apparent with the mid week and end of
the week systems, especially so with the latter. Both timing and
strength of these system require a broadbrush approach to rain
chances. With northwest flow pretty much continuing unabated and a
parade of weather systems, temperatures are expected to remain below
seasonal norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     44  68  54  61 /   0  10  90  80
Camden AR         48  73  57  72 /   0  20  90  60
Harrison AR       45  64  49  59 /  10  40  80  70
Hot Springs AR    48  69  56  67 /  10  30  90  60
Little Rock   AR  47  70  57  67 /   0  20  90  70
Monticello AR     48  72  59  71 /   0  10  90  80
Mount Ida AR      48  67  54  66 /  10  60  90  50
Mountain Home AR  44  66  50  59 /   0  20  80  80
Newport AR        45  69  55  62 /   0  10  90  90
Pine Bluff AR     48  72  58  70 /   0  10  90  70
Russellville AR   47  67  54  65 /  10  30  90  70
Searcy AR         46  69  56  64 /   0  10  90  80
Stuttgart AR      47  71  58  68 /   0  10  90  80
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...51 / Long Term...GOUDSWARD


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