Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 250813
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
613 PM ChST Wed Apr 25 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
A mostly cloudy sky with isolated showers are seen across the
Marianas early this evening. More extensive cloudiness with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over the far
northern Marianas.

&&

.Discussion...
Isolated showers over the area are expected through tonight though
a more extensive clouds with showers and thunder are seen over the
far northern Marianas. Moisture is expected to increase on
Thursday and have retained the scattered showers, though today`s
guidance is drier for Thursday then it was 24 hours ago. The
trade wind surge moisture continues Thursday night and Friday,
which could be the wettest time, before conditions dry out for the
weekend and early next week.

&&

.Marine...
Expect seas to remain in the 5 to 8 foot range over the next few
days as northerly swell decreases and easterly swell rises about a
foot. Rip current risk will predominantly be moderate, but a
period of high risk can not be ruled out.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A series of surface troughs and trade-wind convergence are causing
isolated to widely scattered showers over Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae
States and the Marshall Islands. GFS and ECMWF models still forecast
a pattern change across the region with a near-equatorial trough
developing east-west from southern Chuuk State to the RMI,
roughly between 5N and 8N, by this weekend. Patchy showers are
expected to become more widespread in the coming days. Light to
moderate winds will be variable at times and likely south or
southwest at the forecast points over the weekend. Even the far
northern RMI should get a few showers in the coming days.
Majuro/Kalo buoy shows combined seas of 4 to 5 feet.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Koror...
Satellite shows fair skies over Koror and Yap today. ASCAT Analysis
shows a near-equatorial trough runs eastward from 5N130E well south
of Koror into a weak circulation southwest of Chuuk at 4.5N146E. A
few thunderstorms are on the east side of the circulation, and south
of Koror near 3N137E. The circulation has been nearly stationary,
but models indicate the circulation could drift slightly toward the
west during the next couple of days. Spotty showers may develop over
Palau, but mainly dry weather is expected for Koror and Yap until
more significant moisture arrives from the east Sunday or Monday.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Nierenberg/Simpson



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