Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 222337
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
737 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving storm system approaches on Monday with rain
lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 620 PM Sunday...Forecast remains on track and no changes
needed at this time.

As of 243 PM Sunday...

Vertically stacked system will roll slowly eastward from the
Ozarks today making it only into western Tennessee by Monday
evening. This slow movement will keep our area largely dry
through tonight. We will have to deal with high clouds, which
became thick enough to limit sunshine and temps over the Kanawha
Valley this afternoon. Based on recent satellite imagery,
however, this appears to be thinning in enough time to allow for
a late surge in temps. The high clouds will persist in some
form or fashion overnight, but temps will still likely take
advantage of the dry low level airmass and fall, possibly as low
as the upper 40s in our normally colder valleys.

A band of rain will start to work northeastward into the
coalfields by around dawn on Monday. This will be heading into a
dry low level airmass with downsloping southeast low level flow
in place. So, the rain will likely break up some but I still
paint likely PoPs for many locations but with light QPF as this
band works deeper into the region during the day. The thicker
clouds and precip should keep temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s
for most locations. The other factor on Monday will be
increasing winds with gusts to 20 mph possible in the valleys
but 30 to 40 mph over the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

No significant changes to the short term with the forecast
closed low filling pushing into the middle Ohio Valley from the
west southwest. The upper low will be filling in nature and
will finally kick out Tuesday night. Although unsettled through
the short term, rain will likely be light, and off and on in
nature before it ends Wednesday night. Overall, expecting 0.50
to 1.00 inches of rain during the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

Have some discrepancies in the long term solutions for the
weekend. Consensus exists on weak and short lived high pressure
going into the weekend, and then the next upper level system,
however the extent to which that upper low digs in is in
question. One model depicts more of a separation of the open
wave into a northern and southern component and an overall
weaker system, while other close it off while digging towards
the 540 mark over the central/southern Appalachians. As it
stands, cannot discount ridgetop flurries early Friday night.
Getting tougher to get to the -8C 850mb temps as we get later
into Spring.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 735 PM Sunday...

Possibility for low level wind shear during early morning hours
until just after sunrise at CRW and EKN with winds increasing
aloft through the overnight hours.  This will cause a marginal
low- level wind shear risk. Surface winds at BKW should remain
strong enough overnight to where shear will not be a problem.
Surface winds increase after dawn tomorrow morning and become
gusty.

VFR conditions expected for much of the forecast period,
however, ceilings will lower through the day tomorrow as our
next system approaches from the south. Some light rain can be
expected for all southern terminals by tomorrow afternoon, but
not thinking restrictions will be too bad...maybe high end MVFR
ceilings will be possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of possible MVFR ceilings is likely
to vary tomorrow.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in light to
moderate rain.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE/26
NEAR TERM...ABE/MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MPK


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