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000
FXUS61 KRLX 160641
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
241 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi stationary front will linger across the southern parts
of the area overnight, before returning northward as a warm
front on Tuesday. More storms possible Wednesday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 AM Tuesday...

A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary this morning
across the area. This front will return northward later today as
a warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
south of the front this afternoon. Meso NAM shows effective
layer CAPE of over 2000 at CRW and HTS this afternoon with a
freezing level around 11000 feet. This will give the area a
chance of large hail. With some mid level dry air,
downbursts/microbursts are also a possibility.

Models showing a line of showers and thunderstorms in Ohio
moving eastward by daybreak Wednesday, ahead of an approaching
cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Tuesday...

The region will be in the moist warm sector of an expansive area of
surface low pressure transiting the Upper Midwest much of the day
Wednesday. While instability will be rather muted during the day
will see at least some showers around for the first half of the
day in warm advection with some drying and recovery possible
through the afternoon. Winds at the top of the boundary layer
should be in the 30-35KT range and could reasonably expect
around 70% of that to mix to the surface as gusts in the 25-30
mph range for much of the day.

Wednesday night the cold front with the aforementioned low
approaches. Cooling aloft combined with low level moisture pooling
along the frontal surface should yield some modest instability, 1000-
1500J/kg MLCAPE, modest deep layer shear of 30-35KTs, and some
modest turning in the low level wind field. Based on current progs
think late evening frontal timing will temper the severe risk this
far east, but will need to continue to monitor timing with all
severe hazards possible farther west.

Thursday will be mainly dry with slightly cooler conditions in the
wake of cool frontal passage Wednesday night, but still well above
normal values for mid April.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 AM Tuesday...

Reinforcing cold front passes Friday with additional showers
possible through the day. Temperatures through the weekend will be
slightly below normal for this time of the year. Couldn`t rule out a
few diurnally enhanced showers near the higher terrain each day
through the weekend with the proximity of tropically influenced
moisture just to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Tuesday...

Generally dry weather can be expected this morning, with the
only restrictions being dense fog where rainfall occurred on
Monday.

A warm front will then lift northward this afternoon and
evening. Expect showers and thunderstorms along and south of the
front. Some of these storms could be especially strong, with
large hail and damaging winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog at EKN could vary. Timing and
intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 04/16/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RPY