Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 222342
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
642 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue, until stratus returns later
tonight, with MVFR ceilings. By sunrise tomorrow morning, the
Brady, Sonora, and Junctions terminals will be under MVFR
ceilings. Conditions should return to VFR around 15Z Wednesday.
Also, watch for a low-level jet to create low-level wind shear
conditions later tonight, at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)

Afternoon visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus over
West Central Texas, and surface observations indicate that
temperatures have risen into the 80s. Water vapor satellite shows an
upper level trough over the Great Basin and a ridge aloft over our
region, while the dry-line remains west of the area near El Paso.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop along and ahead of
the dry-line later this afternoon into the evening over the Permian
Basin, with the slight chance (around 15 percent chance) that some
of these storms could make it into the western half of our forecast
area overnight tonight. Otherwise, expect lows in the upper 60s with
areas of low clouds once again moving in from the south and
southeast directions.

The upper level ridge will build further on Wednesday, bringing
additional warming, with highs reaching into the upper 80s to around
90 degrees, with any low clouds becoming scattered cumulus by early
afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

..Summer weather arrives for West Central Texas. Expect hot
temperatures by the weekend...

Temperatures will be on a continued warming trend beginning
through the week. Expect temperatures to climb well above normal
for this time of year. By the weekend, we could see multiple days
with temperatures in the upper 90s with some locations seeing
back-to- back 100 degree days.

(Thursday through next Tuesday)

The weather pattern will remain benign through this time period.
Upper level ridging will settle across much of the central CONUS
and amplify through the weekend. The biggest impact we will see
from this ridge will be the increasing temperatures leading into
the Memorial Day weekend. 850mb temperatures are forecast to climb
above 25 degrees Celsius by the weekend, this translates to hot
surface temperatures. With the recent rains and robust green-up
across the region, temperature trends will trend a few degrees
cooler than MOS outputs. Current MOS outputs have highs of 101 and
103 for San Angelo on Saturday and Sunday. Decided to trend these
a few degrees cooler, but that still gives San Angelo a high of
100 degrees on Sunday. These hot temperatures will be felt across
the entire region. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 90s
but by Saturday and Sunday, highs across the region will be in the
97 to 100 degree range. With these hot temperatures lasting a few
days and with outdoor activities set to increase over the
Memorial Day weekend, remember to hydrate and and wear light,
loose clothing if you plan to be out during peak heating hours.
These hot temperatures will continue into the early part of next
week with highs staying in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  88  67  91 /  10   5  10   5
San Angelo  66  90  67  92 /  20   5   5   5
Junction  67  89  67  92 /  10   5   5   5
Brownwood  65  88  66  91 /  10   5   5   5
Sweetwater  67  87  68  90 /  20  10  10   5
Ozona       66  88  67  91 /  20   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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