Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 241211
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
811 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure ridging across the area will weaken Friday as
an area of low pressure lifts into the central Gulf of
Mexico. Continuing to monitor this as it`s chance of
development over the next 5 days is 80 percent. Will have
the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding regardless of
development across the area for the weekend. Current
forecast is on track for today with highs reaching into the
mid 80s to around 90 across the area and mainly afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms. No updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through 18z with light E/SE winds.
Showers and thunderstorms will then be developing across the
area through the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR to
IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms. Winds will turn
onshore near the coast in the afternoon across the northern
terminals. Storms should diminish around 02z, with winds
becoming light and skies clearing out some overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be below cautionary levels through the
end of the week. May then see an increase in winds to
advisory levels for the weekend as an area of low pressure
lifts northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Will continue to
monitor this system for potential tropical development and
track. Regardless, this will bring numerous showers and
thunderstorms to the waters through the weekend, with winds
and seas higher in the vicinity of storms. Current forecast
has all of this covered well, and have little change for the
update.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  89  74  85  73 /  50  40  60  40
FMY  88  72  84  72 /  60  30  60  50
GIF  91  73  87  71 /  30  10  50  30
SRQ  87  73  84  72 /  60  40  50  50
BKV  90  71  86  70 /  40  40  60  30
SPG  88  75  85  73 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle



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