Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FNUS71 KBGM 241358
FWSBGM

Spot Forecast for Satterly Hill RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
958 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

The prescribed burn area will experience transition during the next
24 hours, from dry high pressure gradually letting go today, to a wet
low pressure system moving in tonight. Clouds will thicken through the
day, but there will still be a good amount of dry air to overcome in
the lower levels. Eventually though the low pressure system will win,
with abundant moisture riding in via south to southeast wind. A wetting
rain is definitely expected tonight with additional showers on Wednesday.
One half to Three quarters of an inch of rain is expected; most of it
occurring tonight into early Wednesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......2900-4500 ft AGL increasing to 4000-5200 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon, then decreasing to 3100 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............53  55  58  60  62  62  61  61
RH..............46  43  40  37  36  36  39  39
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  11  11  12  11  10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.14  17  18  20  18  18  16  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 3.8 4.5 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.0 3.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  21  22  22  22  21  18  16
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

CWR.................0 percent increasing to 93 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNRISE.............

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
CWR.............0   0   40  60  70  80  90  90  90  90  90  90
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  57  56  54  53  52  50  49  48  47  46  45
RH..............44  49  53  59  64  69  74  77  80  83  89  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   6   5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.14  13  12  10  7   6   6   6   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.14  12  10  10  12  14  15  16  17  16  16  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

CWR.................98 percent decreasing to 87 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds 5 to 6 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest 5 to 7
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1000-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
CWR.............90        90        100       90
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        47        51        53
RH..............93        93        86        83
20 FT wind......E 5G7     E 3G5     NE 2      NW 4G6
Mix hgt (ft)....1100      1200      1700      1800
Transport wind..SE 13     SE 8      S 6       SW 5
Haines index....3         3         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Champney
Requested by...LR Silvia
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807423.0/BGM
.EMAIL lrsilvia@fs.fed.us,kevinmboness@fs.fed.us,NECC@fs.fed.us


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