Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FNUS74 KMOB 261017
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Mic04...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
517 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...HIGH DISPERSION INDEX NEAR 75 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
BURN AREA...

.DISCUSSION...The passage of a fast eastward moving system high
in the atmosphere brings potential of wet weather to the local
area today. A modest chance of showers and embedded storms move
in from the west this morning before tapering off into the early
afternoon. Daily dispersion today looks to be good.

Fog potential and other remarks...Widespread late night fog not
expected tonight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning, then chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the morning. Slight chance of showers early
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1000, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1300, then No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph becoming west.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......1700-3000 ft AGL increasing to 3300-5100 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height (m)...518-914 meters AGL increasing to 1006-1554
                    meters AGL in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph shifting to the west 18
                    to 23 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest 5 to 8 meters/second shifting to the
                    west 8 to 10 meters/second in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....Increasing to near 75 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 1.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  75  74  75  75  76  68  53  46  38
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  50  50  50  20  20  20  10  10
LAL.............1   1   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............65  71  76  76  74  73  74  77  78  77
RH..............75  63  56  56  55  55  51  47  43  45
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   8   8   8   9   10  10  8
20 FT wind gust.    8   10  11  11  11  12  14  14  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 3.0 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  18  23  23  21  18  20  21  21  18
Trans wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Trans spd (m/s).5   8   10  10  9   8   9   9   9   8
Dispersion idx..22  45  66  63  56  50  62  71  74  73
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Becoming light northwest.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 1000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...Decreasing to 305 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 15 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northwest 4 to 7 meters/second.
Dispersion index....Decreasing to 3.
LVORI...............Increasing to around 6.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........21  13  13  14  15  16  17  17  20  25  31  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............74  71  67  65  62  60  58  56  55  54  53  52
RH..............48  53  61  65  72  75  80  83  86  90  93  96
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   2
20 FT wind gust.10  8   7   6   6   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...5.1 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Mix hgt (km)....1.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  12  10  9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   8
Trans wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Trans spd (m/s).7   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Dispersion idx..76  6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   4
LVORI...........1   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   6   6   7

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light northwest winds.
Mixing height.......1100-2700 ft AGL increasing to 5700-6200 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing height (m)...335-823 meters AGL increasing to 1737-1890
                    meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northwest 4 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 67.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 1.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........41  44  45  47  49  50  52  53  51  47  44  40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............52  53  57  62  66  70  72  74  75  76  76  74
RH..............96  93  80  67  61  53  49  46  45  43  43  46
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   7   7   8   8   10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.2
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  12  13  13  13  13  12  12  10  9
Trans wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW
Trans spd (m/s).4   4   4   5   6   6   6   6   5   5   4   4
Dispersion idx..4   13  24  37  50  56  52  44  58  67  66  65
LVORI...........7   5   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...10
Requested by...Kevin Mock
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807860.0/MOB
.DELDT 04/26/18
.EMAIL josephkmock@fs.fed.us



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