Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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793
FNUS73 KMPX 250702
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Vermillion River WMA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
202 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Good morning, here is the discussion for Vermillion River.
The main challenge will be light and variable winds. We
expect clear skies and RH to drop off to around 25 percent.
Winds are forecast to be N/NW, but speeds will be very
light that there is low confidence in this direction. If
you have any questions call us at 952-361-6671.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Temperature.........48 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................44 percent at ignition...Min 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 3 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1100-3000
                    ft AGL increasing to 3600-4800 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing winds........West 6 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /20800 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /38000 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............48  52  54  55  57  59  61  61  60
RH..............44  36  32  31  29  27  25  26  28
20 FT wind dir..NE  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 3.6 4.2 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   6   7   7   8   9   9
Mixing wind dir.N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W
Mixing wind spd.8   7   7   6   7   7   8   9   9
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100021  22  25  24  29  29  33  38  38

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight, then becoming light after midnight
                    becoming south around 5 mph after midnight
                    becoming light becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......3200-4700 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 10 mph.
Mixing winds........Southwest 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (2000-42500 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............58     52     45     40     38     36
RH..............32     43     55     70     76     82
20 ft wind......W 4    SW 3   S 3    S 5    S 5    SW 5
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....4700   3200   1700   300    300    300
Transport wind..W 10   W 10   SW 10  S 10   SW 10  SW 9
Mixing wind.....W 10   W 10   SW 10  S 10   SW 10  SW 9
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100043     29     16     2      2      2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain in the
                    morning. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Temperature.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......300-1300 ft AGL increasing to 6300-7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph shifting to the north 21 to
                    25 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing winds........West 10 to 17 mph shifting to the north 21 to
                    25 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (2300-48900 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (131500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to or low.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............38     49     57     58     59     59
RH..............76     61     49     45     44     40
20 ft wind......SW 5   W 7    NW 9   NW 11  N 12   N 12
20 ft wind gust.       10     15     20     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....300    2300   4300   6300   6600   6800
Transport wind..SW 10  W 15   NW 21  N 24   N 25   N 25
Mixing wind.....SW 10  W 15   NW 21  N 24   N 25   N 25
Haines index....4      4      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10002      29     77     132    144    151

$$
Forecaster...BEITLICH
Requested by...Kevin Freking
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807702.0/MPX
.EMAIL kevin.freking@state.mn.us



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