Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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000
FNUS75 KTFX 211057
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Ford Creek Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
457 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Strong westerly winds at ridgetop levels will occur today, as an
upper level disturbance quickly moves from Washington to Southern
Alberta Canada. In addition, a Pacific cold front will move from
west to east across the area during the late morning or early
afternoon hours, which combined with diurnal mixing will lead to
increasing winds at lower elevations. Thus, expect a windy day and
evening across and near the burn area. Another disturbance will move
from the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies Sunday night
and Monday, however, precipitation amounts look significantly lower
than they did with previous forecasts (as the storm has trended
further south). Precipitation totals of less than a tenth of an inch
are now expected.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....53-58.
Min humidity........29-34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West southwest winds around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
                    to around 30 mph this morning, increasing to 25 to
                    35 mph with gusts to around 45 mph in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........West southwest winds around 35 to 45 mph this morning,
                    increasing to around 50 to 60 mph this afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 5500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 30 mph.
Haines index........2 very low.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....26-31.
Max humidity........72-77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West southwest winds around 20 to 30 mph with gusts
                    to around 40 mph during the evening hours, decreasing
                    to 5 to 10 mph after midnight.
 Ridgetop...........West southwest winds around 50 to 60 mph during the
                    early evening hours, decreasing to 15 to 25 mph by
                    midnight.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL decreasing to 2500 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 25 mph.
2 very low.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....50-55.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
 Ridgetop...........West to west northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL increasing to 6000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph.
Haines index........2 very low.

$$
Forecaster...Moldan
Requested by...Shelby Majors
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806900.3/TFX
.EMAIL smajors@fs.fed.us


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