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000
AXNT20 KNHC 192206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends offshore to near 10N20W.
The Atlantic ITCZ extends southwestward from 06N23W to 00N47W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm
of the west African coast between 08W and 13.5W, near the ITCZ
south of 03.5N between 27W and 49W, and also south of 14N between
55W and 59W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak western Atlantic surface ridge extends westward across
Florida to a 1019 mb high in the northeast Gulf near 29N85W to NE
Texas. This pattern is producing moderate E to SE winds in the SW
half of the basin, with light to gentle winds in the NE. The
exception is fresh to locally strong NE winds offshore the N and W
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant convection is
occurring.

For the forecast, high pressure extending across the basin from
the western Atlantic will prevail through Sat, with gentle to
moderate winds in the NE half of the basin, and moderate to fresh
in the SW half of the basin. Winds will pulse fresh to strong in
the evenings NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through at least Sat
evening. A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf late
Sat night into early Sun, stalling and dissipating near 24N early
next week. Fresh to locally strong winds and building seas may
follow the front through Sun night. High pressure will again
dominate the basin by Tue and continue into Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1019 mb sub-tropical high persists near 28N72W, and is
promoting a weakened trade wind flow across the basin. Fresh NE to
E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted offshore of Colombia and
Venezuela, near the Windward Passage, and just south of the
Dominican Republic. Moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
are present at the central basin and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate NNE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Basin. A surface trough in the Atlantic approaching
the Windward Islands is inducing scattered moderate convection.

For the forecast, broad high pressure located between Bermuda and
the Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong trade winds in
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, and south of the Dominican
Republic at night during the next few days. These winds will
gradually diminish this weekend into early next week as a cold
front moves across the western Atlantic and the pressure gradient
relaxes. A locally tight pressure gradient will support pulsing
fresh to locally strong winds near northern Colombia at night
through the period. A surface trough approaching the Windward
Islands is accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms with
gusty winds. The trough will move across the islands into the
southeastern Caribbean tonight through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough bisects high pressure across the Atlantic,
extending from near 28N49W southwestward to just northeast of the
Leeward Islands near 19N61W. This surface trough continues to be
supported by a deep-layered upper trough across the same area, and
is enhancing scattered moderate convection within 180 nm E of the
surface trough. Convection associated with another surface trough
from 24N60W to 23N68W is triggering has dissipated. West of the
trough, 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 28N72W and is
generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow between the
trough and Florida. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft.

E of the surface trough, 1022 mb high pressure near 31N31W anchors
the eastern Atlantic ridge. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing moderate to
fresh NE to E trade winds across the Atlantic between the Cabo
Verdes and the Lesser Antilles, mainly south of 20N. Seas here are
5 to 7 ft. Saharan air is dominating the tropical Atlantic east
of 55W, with fair and hazy skies. Just ahead of the leading edge
of the Saharan air, scattered convection is occurring along a
surface trough along 60W and south of 14N. This trough and
associated weather are expected to move across the Windward
Islands late today through tonight.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough will shift east-
northeastward into the weekend. Elsewhere, high pressure will
remain through Sun, with mostly gentle to moderate winds across
the area. A cold front will move offshore northeastern Florida
Sun,reaching from near 31N71W to the NW Bahamas by early Tue, from
near 31N70W to near 26N75W by late Tue night, then slowly
continue eastward over the remainder of the north-central waters
through Wed night while weakening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected with the cold front. Mainly fresh winds
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front, with locally
strong winds near 31N along with building seas. Moderate to fresh
northwest to north winds are expected behind the front, increasing
to fresh to strong Mon night. Winds may freshen over the
southeastern waters next week as the pressure gradient tightens
there leading to building seas. Mainly slight to moderate seas
will prevail elsewhere.

$$
Konarik