Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240303
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
247 UTC Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends west from 10N86W to beyond 08N138W.
ITCZ is depicted from that point to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 240 nm either side of the
monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast surface ridge will meander just beyond
250 nm seaward of northern and central Mexico for the next few
days. Moderate northwest flow is observed west of 100W, and light
to gentle northwest flow is observed east of 100W, with 4 to 7
ft seas throughout. Little change is forecast until Thu evening
when a tightening pressure gradient will produce a moderate to
locally fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula.
Locally strong conditions are forecast within about 60 nm of the
west coast of Baja beginning on Fri night, with seas building to
5 to 8 ft during the upcoming weekend.

Gulf of California: A moderate nocturnal southwest breeze is
expected along 30N for the next several days. A moderate
northwest breeze is forecast to begin across the southern Gulf
of California on Thu and continue through the weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate nocturnal drainage flow is expected
through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light southerly winds are expected through the weekend. Current
seas of 4 to 7 ft should subside to 3 to 5 ft by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface high is centered near 27N126W with a ridge extending
southeast to near 12N98W. The high will shift southeast allowing
a cold front to reach a position from 32N132W to 28N140W this
evening. The front will continue east eventually losing identity
from 32N124W to 25N130W on Fri night into Sat. Although only
fresh winds northerly winds are forecast west of the front,
northwest swell will maintain an area of 6 to 8 ft seas across
the waters from 29N to 32N through Fri morning.

The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten as a surface low
develops along the ITCZ near 10N132W on Thu resulting in fresh
to possibly strong trades within 480 nm north of low as seas
build to 8 ft. The low should drift west and gradually dissipate
near 10N135W during the upcoming weekend.

$$

ERA



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