National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXAK69 PAFG 111226
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
426 AM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
West Coast winter storm is still ongoing, with the leading front
now moving into the W Interior bringing heavy snow and blowing
snow, which will continue east today. High winds across the
Alaska Range will blast to 80+ mph with chinook winds spreading
across the E Interior. The low shifts northeast and a trailing
cold front will bring more blowing snow to the West Coast Thursday
night and Friday, along with increasing snow chances to the
Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A powerful 165 knot jet streak over th Bering Sea is moving into
SW Alaska with an equally strong PV Anomaly moving across Norton
Sound. There is a 971 mb low near Wales with a trailing 974 mb low
moving east toward Saint Matthew Island in the N Bering Sea. Gales
over Norton Sound are being observed, with strong south winds to
40 mph across most of the Western Interior, as well. Heavy snow
and falling/blowing snow is being observed pretty much across the
white W Interior and West Coast. Winds from the south are
beginning to increase in response to a tightening gradient over
the Alaska Range.

Model Discussion...
The models are in good agreement and tightly clustered overall.
Minimal changes are being made to this forecast package. The only
noteworthy differences to mention are late Saturday into Sunday as
a series of low amplitude shortwave troughs dig into the Mainland,
with all models showing different timing and amplitude as that
arctic front shifts east over the Interior. We favor a blend of
all models for snow and winds for that period.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A very tight gradient is developing across the Alaska Range today
as a strong front moves onshore the West Coast resulting in a
strong Chinook in the Alaska Range; south winds of 45 to 55 mph
with gusts up to 80 mph are expected. The strong southerly winds
will spread north to Delta Junction with gusts up to 65 mph, as
well as north to Nenana where wind gusts to 45 mph are expected.
The gradient also tightens across the Interior, resulting in gusty
winds, especially across Interior hills and summits. South winds
of 15 to 30 mph are expected, with the strongest winds across
hills and summits where winds will gust to 40 to 45 mph. Areas of
blowing snow are also expected across the summits, dropping
visibility at times to half mile or less. Snow chances return
today for the Interior and Brooks Range as the front pushes east.
Best snow chances west and north of a line from Lake Minchumina
to Tanana to Arctic Village. South and east of that line,
downsloping off the Alaska Range will greatly limit precip. Snow
totals through Friday over the southern Brooks Range of 6 to 12
inches, 4 to 6 inches of snow for the south side of the Alaska
Range, and 3 to 5 inches of snow are possible near Tanana. Snow
chances spread across much of the Interior on Friday and continue
into Friday night before tapering off Sat. Some snow showers on
Friday will be fairly heavy with CAPE values of around 100 j/kg.
However, another cold front from the NW will push into the
Interior Sat night and Sun with more snow chances.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong storm continues to barrel into the West Coast with the
worst conditions being seen across the YK Delta to Norton Sound.
South gusts have also increased into the 40 mph range over the
Interior. The deep low associated with the heavy snow and blowing
snow is projected to move from Wales this morning to Kivalina this
evening, with onshore flow becoming gale force from the northwest
overnight and into Friday. With all the heavy snowfall, expect
northwest winds to create more blowing and drifting snowfall
concerns through Friday before the pressure gradient weakens. Yet
another weak front moves in Sat morning with blustery west winds
to northwest winds with a chance for snow.

Elevated water levels of 2 to 5 feet above the normal high tide
occur this afternoon as the low moves into Norton Sound. Water
may move over the top of the ice near the shore and may break up
some of the shore- fast ice. Highest water levels are over E
Norton Sound with only about 2.5 feet projected at Nome.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Heavy snowfall continues over the southern Brooks Range through
Friday. In addition to the snow, strong southerly chinook flow
begins to develop later today on the north side of the Brooks
Range with sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph and gusts up to 65 mph.
At Point Hope, southeast winds today switch around to the
northwest this evening, gusting to 50 mph with more blowing
snow. A front moving across the Arctic Coast Thursday night into
Friday will bring gusty west to northwest winds, resulting in
blowing snow. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Eastern
Beaufort Sea Coast for Friday evening into Saturday afternoon, as
near gale force winds develop near Kaktovik producing blowing
snow that drops visibility to a quarter mile or less.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A large arctic low will anchor the pattern over the Mainland, with
that low projected to be centered over the high arctic north of
the arctic coast. Shortwave troughs move into the Mainland from
the NW which will swing periodic arctic fronts across the North
Slope and into the Mainland, which will support snow/snow showers
at times through about Tue.

Thereafter, the wheels fall off the bus and the models go into
chaos mode with subtropical energy and the interaction with a
migratory wave coming off of E Siberia then into the NPAC. The
latest models are starting to show possible Pacific ridging
building north with a switch to more maritime storminess moving
into the Mainland late week. Should this occur, it would be a
warmer storm with a myriad of possible precipitation types.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ851-852.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-814-816-819-829-830.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815-818.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ817.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ824-826.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ828.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ831-846.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832-834.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ839-845.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ805.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ847.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ807-809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-808-809-817-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher