890
FXAK67 PAJK 301219
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
419 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SHORT TERM...Most places are starting off this morning overcast
as a marine layer has managed to work into most parts of the
panhandle. With this cloud cover over most of the area,
temperatures during the overnight hours have stayed warm due to
the lack of radiational cooling. These clouds will also help to
moderate us during the daytime hours today as most places will
take longer to warm up. The areas that may be an exception to
this is the northern portion of Clarence Strait up through western
Sumner Strait, Frederick Sound as well as Southern Chatham. These
areas do not have a developed marine layer over them when looking
at GOES-17 and VIIRS Nighttime Microphysics products at the time
of writing. Biggest change to the forecast was to increase cloud
cover and lower high temperatures for the day today with the
clouds. Otherwise, very little changes were made to the overall
forecast.


.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday to Saturday night / A short wave will
move from the southern gulf southeast towards the Pacific
Northwest by Wednesday night and as another closed low moves out
of the Bering Sea across the eastern Aleutians by early Thursday.
This upper level feature also looks to be tracking in a similar
path to the southeast Friday. A larger low moves into the Bering
Sea Friday and Saturday while drifting east.

Weak high pressure over the eastern gulf and panhandle are holding
in place through Thursday. A weakening occluded front is strung
out over gulf Friday maybe approaching the panhandle Friday,
although beginning to think that will be held back and it wont be
until late Friday and Saturday the front the stronger low over
Bering Sea Friday and Saturday will push into SE AK Saturday. So
dry weather into Friday and rains returning for the weekend.

Am not expecting any winds over 20 kt until the weekend time frame
and those will be starting over the outer gulf waters.

&&

.AVIATION...Another quiet day aviation wise over the panhandle.
The only concern is with mid level clouds covering most of the
gulf, outer coast, and northern inner channels this morning.
Occasional MVFR ceilings (down to 1300 feet) are being observed
here and there, but should lift to VFR by late morning. Some
ground fog may show up this morning in areas like Klawock and
Yakutat as well. Clouds expected to linger into this evening
before starting to clear out late tonight into Wed, though outer
coastal areas may have clouds linger longer and some MVFR ceilings
develop late.

&&

.MARINE...A developed marine layer across the area will bring
lower visibilities and some possible drizzle. During the day, some
retreat of the marine layer will be possible with continued high
pressure over the panhandle and daytime warming. Mostly light to
10 knot winds for the inner channels with a northerly component.
Lynn Canal is the exception, with southerly winds, possibly
increasing to 15-20 knots depending on daytime heating in the
north.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...SF

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