000
FXAK67 PAJK 191331
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
531 AM AKDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SHORT TERM...With the high pressure persisting over the panhandle
Friday, the weather will once again remain clear and dry. Inside
waters will see winds of 15 kts or less aside from some locally
stronger winds out of interior passes. Aside from brisk sea
breezes developing during the afternoon hours, winds over land are
expected to be light. Only changes made to inherited forecast was
to further bump up temperatures in some areas based on
observations as well as accounting for turbulent mixing overnight
offsetting some radiational cooling.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/...Dry weather for
SE AK lasts a bit longer into Saturday as the approaching front has
slowed down. As high pressure ridge shifts east a trough from a 500
mb low over the Western AK Gulf extends over the SE Gulf then
rotates over the Panhandle from S to N Saturday night into Sunday.
Cloud cover increases and temps return to seasonable normals with a
narrower diurnal range. The front will shear apart as it loses upper
level support so not expecting much in the way of rainfall amounts.
Operational models still have some spread on if this front will
produce widespread precip but ensembles have been consistent keeping
in some light precip over entire area. GFS/NAM/Canadian show good
agreement so leaned towards those. As the front rides over the ridge
another short break in precip looks to occur Monday as another low
moves in from the west. "Active" weather continues into next week
but again ensembles show higher probability of precip than the
operational models, mainly due to uncertainty from blocking ridge
break down, large model spread, and likely leaning on climatology.
Northerly winds diminish as pressure gradient weakens with a
directional shift occurring through Saturday into Sunday. Marine
winds generally less than 20 kts. So overall lower confidence in
forecast details for the mid range.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Saturday/...The weather will remain benign
with widespread conditions within the VFR CIG and VIS flight
category over all of Southeast Alaska through the entirety of the
24-hour TAF period as our weather remains dominated by a ridge of
high pressure. As far as SFC winds, some minor sea breezes and
land breezes will occur through the period. LLWS values remain
insignificant through the period.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure over the region keeps a stalled front over the
gulf through Saturday. Strong to near gale southeasterly winds
will persist over the central gulf through Saturday night before
high pressure moves E of the region. Over the inner channels,
generally light to gentle winds prevail with moderate to fresh NE
to E outflow winds out of Taku Inlet, back side of Douglas Island
and S Lynn through Cross Sound.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...JLC

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