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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220637
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
237 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area for later today through
Tuesday morning, then slides off the coast by Tuesday evening. A
cold front will swing across the region on Wednesday, with high
pressure building from the eastern Great Lakes eastward to off
the New England coast Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT Sunday...

Overnight, a shortwave aloft (currently pushing into the lower
OH Valley), will track E-SE and push across VA and the Carolinas.
While dry air in the low levels will promote cool overnight
lows, this shortwave will likely lead to some mid/high clouds
overnight/Monday morning (CIGs of 10-20k ft). Lows will reach
down into the mid 30s for the NW zones, with mainly upper 30s to
lower 40s for most of the rest of the local area (and in the
mid 40s near the coast in SE VA and NE NC). Patchy frost is
unlikely with the exception of the far NW where patchy frost has
been included (but not enough for a Frost Advisory). Lingering
clouds Monday morning across the east, but generally becoming
mostly sunny. Warmer than today, but highs will still run about
5-10F below average, ranging from the mid 60s well inland to the
upper 50s/lower 60s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

With low dew pts continuing and sfc high pressure becoming
centered over the local area Mon night, expect a clear sky,
light winds, and good radiational cooling conditions. Forecast
lows are in the mid to upper 30s over much of the CWA, with
localized lower 30s possible. At least patchy frost will be
possible over much of the CWA and a Frost Advisory may be needed
for inland areas. Turning warmer on the backside of the sfc
high for Tue, with a light southerly flow by aftn. Mainly sunny
with highs in the lower 70s inland, and in the mid to upper 60s
at the coast. Increasing clouds Tue night in advance of another
cold front. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The system/cold front
on Wed will be northern stream, with low level flow turning
westerly rather quickly. As such, moisture will be limited, and
PoPs will only be 20-30% N and ~15% S. It will be well mixed and
warmer, with highs into the mid to upper 70s (except lower 70s
N/NW).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

A fairly strong high pressure system is progged to build in
from the Great Lakes From late Wed night through Thu night. Cool
And becoming mostly clear with lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s Wed night. Mostly sunny on Thu with highs ranging through
the 60s. Clear/mostly clear Thu night with lows ranging from
the mid 30s to lower 40s (with patchy frost possible). The high
will slide off to the NE or E on Fri, with mostly sunny skies
and highs in the mid 60s to around 70F. Partly to mostly cloudy
Fri night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. There could
be isolated showers across the N by Sat morning. There will be
at least a low chc for showers on Sat, as the next system lifts
ENE through the Great Lakes/upper midwest. PoPs are only 20-30%
for now with highs Sat in the upper 60s to lower 70s. After
that, turning much warmer by Sunday as an upper level ridge
amplifies across the ern CONUS. Highs Sunday into the 80s for
most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Low pressure was continuing to move farther out to sea early
this morning, leaving mostly VFR SC and AC CIGs at ORF and ECG.
Otherwise, Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites
from this morning into Tue morning, as just SCT-OVC high and
mid level clouds will persist through this aftn, before mainly
SKC this evening into Tue morning. High pressure will build into
and over the region later today through Tue.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Tue into Tue night. There
is a minimal chance for showers Wed, but conditions will primarily
stay VFR. Dry/VFR conditions Thu and Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 945 PM EDT Sunday...

High pressure is gradually building in from the west this
evening. Meanwhile, 1008 mb low pressure is now several hundred
miles E of the area and continues to depart further offshore. NE
winds have gradually declined over the past few hrs, though
remain gusty to 15-20 kt in the srn coastal waters and Currituck
Sound. Waves in the bay are 1-3 ft (highest at the mouth).
Offshore, seas also continue to trend down with the lighter
winds and range from 3-4 ft N to 5-7 ft S.

In terms of headlines, SCAs continue for mouth of the bay and
coastal waters S of Cape Charles through tonight/early Monday.
Sub-SCA winds are generally expected for the next few hrs before
another surge of cold advection drops south across the waters
late tonight. Guidance shows marginal SCA conditions for the
Ches Bay during this surge with somewhat lower confidence in
meeting thresholds in the lower James and Currituck Sound. SCAs
for this surge continue for the middle and upper bay and have
also added to lower bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound (via
an extension) to cover N winds 15-20 kt w/ gusts to around 25
kt. Winds should mainly stay below criteria over the coastal
waters and the SCAs there are mainly in effect for elevated seas
which persist through tomorrow morning. Conditions then improve
Monday aftn into Tuesday as high pressure further builds into
the region. Secondary low pressure deepens along the stalled
front well offshore late Tuesday and may keep some enhanced
swell moving toward the coast. A cold front approaches from the
west late Tuesday with increasing SW winds around 15 kt. Seas
may build above 5 ft for the northern coastal waters during this
period. The front is forecast to move through the region
Wednesday night into early Thursday with increasing N winds and
potential for SCA headlines in its wake.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RHR