088
FXUS64 KAMA 051811
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
111 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will linger, mainly across
the northern Panhandles this morning in association with an upper
level short wave moving over.  Otherwise...it is expected to be dry
this afternoon and much of tonight.

A negatively tilted upper level trough will sweep across the Great
Basin tonight and will move across Colorado and into western South
Dakota by late Monday afternoon.  A strong low level jet will
develop over our northwest sections tonight as the base of the
trough sweeps over this area.  We will have to watch to see if any
of these strong winds can be brought down to the surface.  Also,
would not be surprised to see a shower develop over the northwest
CWA tonight as low level WAA and moisture advection help out.  A
dryline is expected to move from west to east across the Panhandles
during the day Monday. If the dryline stalls in our eastern
Panhandles, then there will be a chance of severe thunderstorms in
our area. But the majority of the models want to push it into
western Oklahoma before thunderstorms develop.

15

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
again on Tuesday due to warm, windy, and dry conditions. A series
of cold fronts are forecast for mid to late week which will cool
temperatures back down to the 60s and 70s. Precipitation chances
may return to portions of the forecast area this weekend.

By Tuesday, zonal flow is forecast for the southern CONUS while a
H500 center of low pressure remains across the Northern Plains
through late this week. At the surface, west to southwest winds
are likely once again on Tuesday. Humidity recovery on Tuesday
morning will not be all that great, so elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are likely once again on Tuesday for the
central and west. The first of two cold fronts looks to move down
across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Only a
slight cool down is expected behind the first front as it is not
all that strong.

Thursday looks to be a relatively mild day with northeast winds
and cooler temperatures in the 70s. The second cold front should
move across the Plains late on Thursday and is forecast to be
through the entire area by very early Friday morning. Breezy north
winds look possible behind this front as it is stronger. Friday
looks to be the coolest day of the next week. Forecast models
deviate on how the progression of an upper level cutoff low will
transition late this week into early next week. If the low can
move far enough east, the lift provided by the low may generate
showers and storms for the Southern High Plains this weekend. Have
kept NBM PoPs given high uncertainty in timing and placement of
this feature at this time.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

MVFR/VFR conditions to start the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites.
Conditions should improve to VFR levels over the next 1-3 hours
and continue until 08-10Z Monday where MVFR cigs may return for
KAMA/KGUY. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites between
12-15Z and continue to the end of the TAF period. Winds will start
out of the south at 10-15 kts. Winds will then pick up for
KGUY/KDHT after midnight with winds sustained of 20-30 kts with
gusts to near 40 kts at times. Winds after sunrise for all TAF
sites will then be out of the SW at 15-25 kts with higher gusts
at times throughout the remainder of the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                58  81  47  85 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  58  84  44  86 /  10  20   0   0
Boise City OK              56  76  40  83 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  60  85  50  90 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              60  82  45  90 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  59  81  45  86 /  20   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               58  84  51  85 /  20  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 55  78  38  84 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  57  81  43  87 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                60  81  45  87 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                59  85  49  86 /  10  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   59  83  49  85 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                58  87  52  85 /  20  20   0   0
Wellington TX              59  87  52  85 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...29