Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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683 FXUS64 KAMA 302325 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 625 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Another nice night is in store for the Panhandles. Lows tonight should be very similar to last night, with mid 40s across the northwest to upper 50s to the east. Attention shifts to the fire weather and severe thunderstorm concerns for tomorrow. Low end critical fire weather is looking very likely for the central and west. Latest hi-res guidance still suggests the dryline may remain somewhere across the eastern CWA tomorrow. Have blended in a mix of hi-res guidance dew points to better establish the potential dryline positioning. Do not plan on making any adjustments to the Red Flag Warning at this time, but will note that additional areas in the central and north central may need to be added at a later time due to the lower relative humidity values. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Our upper level pattern changes slightly as an upper trough expands southward and traverses across our area on Wednesday. Until then zonal flow continues in the Panhandles for the rest of today. Breezy southwesterly winds alongside a mostly stable airmass will promote a sharp rise in high temperatures today, where many places in the CWA could reach the lower 90`s. Only elevated fire weather conditions exist today, since RFTI values are not expected to be met for critical fire weather. Despite low relative humidty values, surface winds will not be strong enough to promote a fire risk. By Wednesday, critical fire weather is expected for the western Panhandles behind the dryline. Meanwhile east of the dryline a conditional chance for thunderstorms exist for the eastern Panhandles, some of which could become severe. Models mostly agree on the dryline placement in our CWA tomorrow afternoon, but how far east it sets up is still in question. Favorable instability is in place, but weaker 0-6 km bulk shear may inhibit discrete storms from forming. If a supercell can form large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado will be possible. There are still some capping concerns, but higher temperatures and less initial cloud coverage will help erode the inhibition. CAM guidance is still somewhat split on where storms may fire up if at all tomorrow, but the converging storm initiation time looks to be around 4 PM. Currently, precipitation looks to be most favored in the southeast, so we have left NBM POPs in to reflect this notion. Rangel .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are expected for the western Panhandles Wednesday afternoon through the evening. As a dryline sets up and passes through, minimum RH values will approach the single digits and surface winds will increase. Wind gusts could even reach 40 mph during the afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for the areas mentioned above. RFTI values up to 5 are possible, while ERC percentiles are up to 90 percent. The best areas to see these critical conditions will be the northwestern Panhandles. Areas further south have slightly lower RFTIs and ERCs so marginally critical conditions are forecast to be met. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Semi-zonal upper level flow is expected for Thursday and Thursday night. A very minor shortwave trof embedded in this flow is progged to zip eastward across the region during this time period, and could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to parts of the eastern OK and eastern TX Panhandles Thursday afternoon and night. NBM slight chance pops look reasonable and were accepted. For Friday through Sunday night, a few minor upper level shortwave trofs embedded in the overall mean flow are forecast to move across the region and will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. Based on the predicted track of these minor features, the southern Texas Panhandle may have the best chance of receiving precipitation, while the far northern and northwestern zones may have the lowest chance. NBM pops reflect the above scenario and were utilized in the appropriate grids. A much stronger upper level low pressure system is then slated to move across Colorado and the central and northern plains region Monday into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by medium range models would prove to be more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario for our forecast area. Medium range models and associated ensemble members are in reasonable agreement and were accepted. That said, warmer temperatures along with breezy to windy conditions and dry weather are in the offing for Monday and Tuesday at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected for most of this TAF issuance. KGUY may have MVFR ceilings starting around 10-12z that could last a few hours. Confidence is not high enough to put MVFR at this time, so have included scattered low clouds for now. Winds will generally be lower overnight before increasing once again during the daytime hours. Gusts of 20 to 30 kts are forecast out of the south beginning around 18z. Muscha && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are expected for the western Panhandles Wednesday afternoon through the evening. As a dryline sets up and passes through, minimum RH values will approach the single digits and surface winds will increase. Wind gusts could even reach 40 mph during the afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for the areas mentioned above. RFTI values up to 5 are possible, while ERC percentiles are up to 90 percent. The best areas to see these critical conditions will be the northwestern Panhandles. Areas further south have slightly lower RFTIs and ERCs so marginally critical conditions are forecast to be met. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 54 91 53 78 / 0 10 10 0 Beaver OK 53 89 53 78 / 0 30 20 10 Boise City OK 44 86 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 55 96 55 80 / 0 10 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 48 93 52 80 / 0 10 10 0 Canyon TX 53 91 53 79 / 0 10 10 0 Clarendon TX 58 91 56 80 / 0 30 30 10 Dalhart TX 43 87 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 47 88 49 77 / 0 10 10 0 Hereford TX 52 91 53 80 / 0 10 10 0 Lipscomb TX 57 89 56 79 / 10 30 30 10 Pampa TX 57 91 55 78 / 0 20 20 10 Shamrock TX 58 86 58 79 / 10 40 40 20 Wellington TX 59 87 58 82 / 10 50 50 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ001-002- 006-007-011-012-016. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ001. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...05