852
FXUS61 KBGM 052347
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
747 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move through the region Monday sweeping
away the low clouds, showers and any fog. High pressure builds
into the region but only for a short stay Tuesday. Additional
systems with some showers move through for the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...

Rain showers remain over the western Catskill region of NY,
otherwise showers have dissipated across the area. Radar favors
HRRR solution, therefore blended this into the previous
forecast. Other CAMs show some light pop up showers occurring
later this evening and overnight, as a result kept slight
chance Pops in the forecast. Also made minor changes to update
temperatures and dewpoints using current observations.

330 PM Update...

A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight. However,
the main shortwave ahead of the front will shift east of the region
of this evening. This will lead to a decrease in shower coverage
across the region from west to east. The overall flow looks weak,
leading to light winds. The light winds coupled with clouds and
lingering moisture may result in some fog development as well
overnight. Temperatures may also hold fairly steady as a result of
the clouds and fog through most of the night.

The cold front only slowly moves through the area Monday so low
clouds and fog will be hard to clear out especially in NE PA.
However, some sunshine is expected by the afternoon allowing
temperatures to push 70. Clear skies and light winds under high
pressure Monday night. A fairly favorable setup for raditional
cooling as a result of the above mentioned with temperatures
falling fairly quickly to around 40. This looks to be just warm
enough to prevent any frost but fog may be possible again
though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

High pressure will continue to slide into the area from the
Great Lakes on Tuesday. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions
will make for a very lovely Tuesday. Winds will remain light and
variable during the day as the center of the surface high moves
overhead. Plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to climb
into the 70s, even with a cooler airmass overhead.

The ridge and surface high will move east of the area by late
afternoon as the next low pressure system moves into the Great
Lakes region. This low will bring a wind shift to SWerly, and
push a weak warm front into the region during the evening
hours. Rain showers are expected to develop over the area by
the mid evening through Wednesday morning as the low tracks over
CNY. Temperatures overnight will fall into the mid to upper
50s.

The warm front doesn`t push too far north as the low quickly
track across the region and drags a weak cold front through the
area by late morning. Soundings show some pretty dry air in the
mid and upper level of the atmosphere accompanying this front
so additional showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along the front, but should not linger once the it
passes. The warm front retreats to NEPA, where temperatures will
climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. In NY, where the cold
front and rain has more impacts, temps will only reach the upper
60s to low 70s.

Weak mid-level ridging moves into the area Wednesday night,
which will keep conditions dry, but should pull in some cooler
Canadian air. Temps are expected to fall into the upper 40s to
low 50s. The Wyoming Valley should remain in the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM Update...

Active weather continues for the end of the work week as a
low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley on Thursday
and weak low pressure develops off the Delmarva Peninsula on
Friday, continuing to trek to the ENE. Rain showers and cooler
temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. A transient ridge
moves over the region Saturday behind the departing trough,
keeping conditions cool and mostly dry. There will be a chance
for a few isolated afternoon showers as a weak shortwave moves
into the area from the west. Sunday should see more showers as
another trough moves into the region. The GFS and Euro are
handing this very differently, with the GFS having a much deeper
and stronger trough dig into the southern US and slowly rotate
from positive to negative over the eastern US while the Euro
has a flatter and much more transient trough. Because of this
uncertainty, NBM PoPs were relied upon, bringing a chance
(30-50%) of rain to the area Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

745 PM Update

Widespread MVFR/Fuel Alt CIGs are across the area early this
evening, with IFR already at BGM and AVP.

Ceilings should lower to IFR before 06z at ELM and ITH...and by
around 09z early Monday morning at SYR and RME. Widespread IFR
to LIFR CIGs then persist through the morning hours, before
gradually lifting to MVFR or even VFR at all sites (except AVP)
by 16-18z Monday. AVP finally lifts above IFR by around 20z
Monday afternoon. VFR at all sites except AVP expected by 21-11z
Monday afternoon/evening.

There remains some uncertainity with the visibility overnight
into Monday morning. Blended model data shows vsbys falling
between 1-4SM at all of our taf sites by daybreak. It`s possible
some pockets of lower visibility and even dense fog form; pin
pointing where is too uncertain at this time. Visibility rises
back to high end MVFR and VFR by late morning or midday.

Light southerly winds under 10 kts overnight, turning west-
southwest under 5 kts Monday morning. Winds eventually turn
northwest Monday afternoon 5-10 kts.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Patchy early
morning fog possible.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely with
a period of rain showers along a warm front.

Wednesday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR; except lingering
MVFR possible at RME & perhaps SYR. Isolated t`storm possible.

Thursday through Friday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...ES/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM/MWG