Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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795 FXUS63 KBIS 090303 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1003 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated rain showers continue tonight over far northern and far southern North Dakota. - A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected Thursday through the weekend. - Confidence is increasing that more widespread precipitation chances will return to the region during the first half of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 954 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A few light showers continue to move through far northern and southern portions of the area, which continue to be reflected well in going forecast. Therefore, only minimal changes needed. UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A few showers continue to rotate around the low over far southern North Dakota, and over far north central into northwest North Dakota. Previous forecast reflected this quite well, so only change was to adjust precipitation chances a little bit based on current trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Low pressure that was vertically stacked over southwestern ND/northwestern SD has become elongated as it quickly shifts southeast through the remainder of today into tonight. During this time, the area will remain in cyclonic flow resulting in continued isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and evening, especially in the northwest. There remains a low chance that a thunderstorm or two could creep up into the southern James River Valley of ND later today. However, the best thunderstorm potential looks to remain south of the forecast area. For Thursday, a quick-moving ridge on a west to east axis passes through the area bringing warmer temperatures to the region. A weak trailing shortwave will flatten the ridge and bring a 20 percent chance of showers primarily to western ND Thursday afternoon. A few showers could then continue in southwestern to central ND during the evening. Beyond that, conditions look mostly dry through the weekend as flow aloft becomes northwesterly. During the weekend, models are in fair agreement that somewhat weak upper low pressure will develop over the Four Corners region and progress eastward, while more organized low pressure passes through south central Canada towards the southern Hudson Bay. A trailing trough off the Hudson Bay low brings the best chances of precipitation towards the middle of the week. Regardless, the main thing is that starting Sunday night, multiple waves of energy may bring precipitation to the forecast area. A lack of agreement means exact details on timing, precipitation totals, and thunderstorm potential are not yet known. Temperatures will continue a gradual warming trend into this weekend. Highs Thursday and Friday will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s. By the weekend, however, most locations should see low to mid 70 degree readings. A cooling trend is then favored to start the next workweek as aforementioned troughing may bring cooler air to the region. That said, NBM 25th/75th percentile spreads remain semi-large (around 10 degrees) for high temperatures next week, so some uncertainty certainly does exist. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Localized MVFR ceilings are possible over far southwest and south central North Dakota, along with over far north central into northwest North Dakota this evening as a few isolated showers continue to move through. Isolated showers are again possible over western North Dakota Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...JJS