Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 230818
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
318 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light accumulating snow west into central today through
  tonight along with increasing easterly winds.

- High chance for an impactful winter storm tonight through
  Monday, and possibly lingering into Monday night in the James
  River Valley and east.

- Impacted areas will be along and south of a line from
  Williston and Watford City to Harvey and Carrington, with the
  greatest impacts along and south of Interstate 94.

- Below normal temperatures continue into next week, with a
  general warming trend into the beginning of April.

- Another weather disturbance late next week may bring another
  round of precipitation to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Currently, west/northwest flow aloft with broad surface high
pressure across eastern areas of the region early this morning.
Lingering low stratus and a few flurries persist southwest, but
should too dissipate with time as forcing wanes.

Strong area of low pressure just off the West Coast this
morning will slowly move inland over the next 24 hours, with a
S/WV ridge across the Rockies developing and waning to the east
today and tonight. We still expect a band of light snow
developing across the Dakotas from west to east today as right
entrance region upper level jet dynamics and subtle low/mid
level frontogensis forcing migrate east across the region. Half
upwards to an inch of snow remains forecast through this
evening from Williston southeast through the James River Valley
and all points west.

Main forcing mechanisms associated with the aforementioned
upper low move into the region tonight and into the day Sunday,
as multiple lead embedded waves lift east-northeast across the
Northern Plains as flow aloft becomes west/southwest. The
associated sfc low will be quasi-stationary to our south,
centered over eastern Colorado, developing and leading to
increasing isentropic ascent to its north across our region late
this weekend. Snow/QPF probabilities remain pretty much the
same as 12/24 hours ago, with greater than 90 percent chance for
6 inches of snow over the southern two thirds of ND, with still
50-70 percent chance of 12 inches along and south of Interstate
94 (Sat night through Monday morning). Easterly winds will
increase, and will become an increasing impact Sunday and
especially Sunday night into Monday morning (turning more
north/northeasterly) as the surface low lifts northeast into the
Upper Midwest and as sfc high pressure develops into the High
Plains of eastern Montana (increasing pressure gradient for the
Dakotas). So while the main period of accumulating snow ends
through Sunday night, blowing snow impacts look to linger
through Monday morning.

For headlines, in coordination with our NWS neighbors, will hold
with the Winter Storm Watch with this product issuance with
still some questions on the north to south snow accumulation
gradient as surface high pressure over south central Canada
will likely result in a sharp north to south snow gradient.

After the storm, temperatures are favored to bottom out Monday
and Tuesday, with highs in the teens and 20s. A gradual warming
trend is then forecast thereafter, getting closer to normal
values by the end of this month. Precipitation chances look
minimal through mid-week, with some signal of another wave
moving through the general area later in the week. Will continue
to monitor this. Some interest then late next week with another
potential system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Mainly VFR conditions for the start of the 06z TAF period,
though a few brief period of MVFR ceilings at the southwestern
terminal of KDIK and KBIS remain possible. Widespread MVFR
ceilings, reduced visibility, and light snow begin to move into
southwestern North Dakota late tonight/early Saturday,
beginning with KDIK then spreading to KXWA and KBIS through
early Saturday and the end of the TAF period. Snow will become
increasingly likely at KMOT and KJMS near and beyond the end of
the 06z TAF period. Winds are out of the north/northwest and
light, but will veer toward the east southeast and strengthen
throughout the period, especially at the western terminals of
KDIK where sustained speeds up to 20 knots and gusts are
possible.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening
for NDZ009-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH


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