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000
FXUS64 KBMX 202337
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
637 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 20 2024

Rain chances are expected to increase across Central Alabama as we
continue through the day. A stalled surface front is oriented east
to west across the Gulf Coast, and the 850mb front is slowly
drifting southeast across the Tennessee Valley. Deep moisture has
been increasing and showers and some storms have begun increasing in
coverage upstream over the Lower MS River Valley where isentropic
lift is strongest. That activity is progged to propagate eastward
through the afternoon and into the evening hours with widespread
rain expected overnight. Highest thunderstorm chances will focus
across the southern half of the area where temperatures are
warming into the lower 80s, but temperatures are still in the 60s,
at the time of this writing, near and along the I-20 corridor due
to the cloud cover and northerly surface winds. Only sub-severe
thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon due to the
slightly lower temperatures limiting MUCAPE to around 1500-2000
J/kg, but some gusty winds and small hail will be possible in any
stronger storms.

A cool, light to moderate rainfall will be ongoing across much of
the area at sunrise tomorrow, but should begin to exit the area
towards early afternoon as the low-level trough moves east. Rain
amounts will generally range from 0.5-1". Clouds will begin to clear
across the northwest during the afternoon, but most of the area will
stay cloudy and seasonably cool with highs only in the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT SAT APR 20 2024

Model trends continue to show dry conditions to start the work
week, with unseasonably cool temperatures both Monday and Tuesday
mornings. As high pressure slides across the area, with cool
northwesterly to northerly flow, lows will be in the 40s areawide.
Typically cooler spots could fall into the upper 30s. Tuesday
begins a warming trend as high pressure shifts to the east and
upper level flow becomes westerly. A couple passing shortwaves are
expected late in the week, but with limited moisture, will
maintain a dry forecast through the day on Friday.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT SAT APR 20 2024

A weak cold front was located near the I-85 corridor. North of the
front, sfc winds were north 8-10 kts.

North of the front, Widespread showers with embedded tstms will
occur overnight, producing vsbys 3-5 miles along with MVFR cigs.
Conds will begin to improve after 15z as the rain lifts out of the
area with cigs rising above 3000 ft agl.

South of the front, VFR conds at MGM/TOI thru 03Z with VCSH. Cigs
will lower to IFR cigs by 06Z. Shower and tstm activity will be
more scattered, but isolated strong storms possible with vsbys
blo 3 miles in heavy rain. The cold front will push south of TOI
by 06Z, with low cigs at MGM/TOI thru 18Z, improving to VFR by
21Z.


58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rainfall is expected tonight through Sunday morning.
Drier air arrives Sunday afternoon, with rain ending. RH values
on Monday are expected to be in the 30 to 45 percent range with
northerly 20 foot winds of 6 to 10 mph. 20ft winds become
southerly on Tuesday, at 6 to 10mph, with minimum RH values in the
28 to 40 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     46  61  40  67 /  80  60   0   0
Anniston    49  59  41  67 /  80  70   0   0
Birmingham  48  60  42  68 /  70  60   0   0
Tuscaloosa  49  62  42  70 /  90  60   0   0
Calera      49  59  43  68 /  80  60   0   0
Auburn      54  59  47  67 /  90  80   0   0
Montgomery  54  61  45  70 /  90  80   0   0
Troy        58  62  45  70 /  50  70   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...58/rose