Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 241212
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
812 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging builds over the area today into Monday. A slow-
moving cold front is expected move through the area during the
mid-week period with the next chance of showers. Temperatures
will begin below normal today, gradually warming to near to
above normal values through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8 AM Update: Abundantly clear skies are being noted on satellite
as upper ridging continues to build over the area. At the
surface temperatures are generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s
across the forecast area with northeasterly winds around 10 mph.
The winds have decreased enough to allow the Lake Wind Advisory
to expire, but breezy conditions can be expected through the
early afternoon. Otherwise, general forecast thinking remains
the same as the early-morning discussion.

Early-morning discussion: Early this morning low pressure
continues to deepen as it gradually pulls away into the
Atlantic. At the same time, a high pressure ridge with modified
polar air is building into the southeast from the Great Lakes
area, providing cool and dry weather today and tonight. Winds
are a little bit stronger than they usually are overnight due to
the tightening pressure gradient, strong enough to necessitate
a Lake Wind advisory for the overnight hours. Winds should come
down below advisory criteria after sunrise, but it will still be
a bit breezy during the morning hours.

Skies will be mostly clear through this afternoon, but then
some high clouds will approach the CSRA by late in the day. They
should generally be on the thin side, however.

Watching the possibility of some patchy frost in the usual cold
spots as overnight temps will get down into the mid 30s. The
biggest threat would be over the northern an northeastern
sections of the CWA. Not enough confidence that the winds will
die down for a frost advisory, but this will need to be watched
during the next shift as it is not far away.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
After a cool start, fair with slightly warmer max temps Monday.
Upper and surface ridge axes to shift to our east. Expect
increasing high level cloud cover. Return low level flow to
provide some increasing lower cloud cover late Mon/Mon nt,
especially CSRA and S Midlands. Cloud cover to provide warmer
min temps Mon nt.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper and surface ridge axes offshore Tuesday, with a front
approaching from the west. Mean upper trough to develop over the
central CONUS with SW flow aloft over our region, leading to
slow frontal movement. Low pressure also expected to develop
near the coast Wed nt/Thu. Guidance indicating a chance of
precipitation late Tuesday through Thursday night. Upper trough
to push to our east by Friday, with drier air and high pressure
moving in under a dry NW flow aloft, providing fair conditions
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period.

Northerly to northeasterly winds will continue to gust up to
around 20kts through about 18z before decreasing as the
pressure gradient weakens. Winds are also expected to veer to a
more easterly direction by late today into tonight. Some thin
high clouds are expected to move in from the west late today and
tonight, but they should cause no aviation issues at the
terminals.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions associated with
rainfall are possible Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$


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