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000
FXUS64 KCRP 180728
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
228 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the Brush Country
this afternoon/evening

▶ High Risk of Rip Currents extended through this evening

A couple elevated thunderstorms were observed passing through the
Coastal Plains earlier this morning as a shortwave rotates through
aloft. At the surface, onshore flow continues to usher moisture
into the region. The 00Z KCRP sounding observed a PWAT of 1.51".
This will likely increase into the 1.7-1.8" range today. This will
keep cloud cover in place through much of the short term period.
As we head through the day, a cold front will move south across
the state, eventually stalling over the Hill Country. This
boundary is expected to linger around Central Texas through the
end of the work week. Meanwhile, another H5 shortwave will eject
out of Mexico within the quasi-zonal flow aloft.

Lift associated with this wave and ample low level moisture will
warrant a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. The greatest
chances will be to our north where low level convergence will be
increased closer to the front. With that said, the Brush Country
remains within a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms through
tonight. Any storms that do develop will be capable of large hail
and damaging winds. Forecast soundings support this scenario with
MLCAPE nearing 3500 J/kg, lapse rates around 8C, and bulk shear
around 40 knots. In addition, DCAPE values range from 1000-1300
J/kg. A few recent CAM runs suggest a MCS moving south of out of the
Hill Country tonight. The majority fizzle this activity out before
nearing our northern counties. However, a few bring a decaying MCS
into the Brush Country. Confidence is low but we will need to keep
an eye on this trend. Any activity that does develop will likely
diminish during the late evening hours as our upper level support
exits to our east.

On Friday, the front looks to remain quasi-stationary to our north.
It will likely begin to move south once again towards the end of the
short term as another shortwave across the Plains nudges it south.
There is a low chance for some patchy fog Friday morning as low
level moisture continues to increase.

Lastly, went ahead and extended the High Risk of Rip Currents
through this evening as buoy 19 is reporting swells around 8s with
swell heights near 5ft. While some guidance is suggesting these
swells to come down, it seems like it has been underdoing it
recently so felt comfortable extending the high risk. There`s a
moderate risk tonight and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Key Messages:

-Scattered Thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday Night

-Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Saturday

The period begins with a boundary stalled in Central Texas that will
get pushed through Saturday/Saturday night due to an upper level
disturbance moving into the region from the west. This will
combine with PWATs around the 99th percentile for this time of
year (1.7-1.9 inches). Models also depict moderate instability in
place across our area in advance of the front (GFS/ECMWF).
Therefore with accompaniment of the forcing from the upper level
disturbance, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the
region Saturday into Saturday night. WPC put the northern portions
of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Given the
moisture and instability it is not out of the question to get
some heavier rainfall with these storms. After the passage of the
boundary, conditions will begin to dry out though some moisture
will linger Monday and allow a scattered chance for isolated
showers along the Coastal Plains and portions of the Brush
Country. A gradual warming trend will ensue after Monday high
temperatures likely returning to the upper 80s to upper 90s by
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Poor aviation conditions can be expected overnight across most area
terminals with a mixture of MVFR to IFR levels (except at LRD). A
few showers and elevated thunderstorms are moving through the
region this evening in response to a passing mid level disturbance.
Rain chances over area terminals however are minimal, therefore
have opted for leaving it out of the TAFs for now, but a brief
thundershower cannot be completely ruled out. The rain should
shift eastward through the night and end by Thursday as the
disturbance leaves the area. Conditions are forecast to improve
Thursday afternoon with sites returning to VFR levels, before
falling back to MVFR across the eastern terminals after sunset.
Winds will remain light out of the east and southeast tonight,
then increase above 12 knots and briefly become gusty during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Patchy fog is possible along the bays and along the immediate
coast this morning and again Friday morning. Otherwise, a weak to
moderate onshore flow will continue as we wrap up the work week.
With that said, we will a small window this afternoon of moderate
to occasionally strong flow, generally south of Port Aransas.
A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist on Saturday. An
upper level disturbance, cold front, and copious moisture will
contribute to scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms Saturday
night. The front will move across the waters Sunday. In response,
precipitation will dissipate and moderate offshore flow will
develop creating Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Winds
will transition to weak to moderate onshore areawide by late
Monday and persist through the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  72  86  72 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          87  70  86  70 /  10  10  10   0
Laredo            98  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
Alice             93  71  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          81  73  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           98  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10
Kingsville        90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  73  83  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...ANM