768
FNUS71 KCTP 030243
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Elbow Unit 2...Silvix
National Weather Service State College PA
1043 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on May 03.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
Sunshine Friday morning will be followed by increasing clouds
during the afternoon and nighttime hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely
by Friday evening and then continue Saturday.

Generally speaking, humidity levels should be somewhat higher on Friday,
versus the last two days (Wednesday and Thursday).


.FRIDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 73.
Min Humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing Height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph shifting to the south 12
                    to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................14 to 39.

TIME (EDT)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  38  47  50  53  56  52  47  43  49  55  61
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  50  53  57  61  65  67  69  71  72  73  71
RH................  80  77  67  60  54  52  51  49  49  49  53
20 FT Wind Dir....  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  4   5   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8
20 FT Wind Gust...  6   8   10  10  10  10  10  10  11  12  12
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.4 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6
Transp Wind Dir...  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp Wind Spd...  7   10  10  12  12  12  13  13  14  15  15
LVORI.............  4   3   3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  14  14  24  24  24  31  31  31  39  39  39
Haines Index......  6   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
                    Chance of rain showers late in the evening.
LAL.................No Tstms until 2000, then 9-15 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 47.
Max Humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing Height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....South 14 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................14 to 20.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  66  72  78  79  80  81  84  86  89  89  90  90
Weather Cov.......          SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather Type......          RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........          SCH SCH SCH
LAL...............  1   1   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  69  66  64  62  60  58  56  54  53  51  50  49
RH................  57  63  65  67  69  75  74  77  77  83  83  86
20 FT Wind Dir....  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   8   8   8   8
20 FT Wind Gust...  12  12  12  14  13  13  13  13  12  12  12  12
Mix Hgt (kft).....  3.4 2.9 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Transp Wind Dir...  S   S   S   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp Wind Spd...  14  15  15  17  16  16  16  16  16  16  15  15
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
ADI...............  20  20  20  19  19  19  18  18  18  14  14  14
Haines Index......  4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning, then rain showers likely
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 53.
Min Humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 11 mph.
Mixing Height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................24 to 35.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  87  84  89  90  90  91  91  92  92  92  92  92
Weather Cov.......  CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather Type......  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  48  48  47  48  49  50  50  51  52  52  52  52
RH................  86  86  89  93  89  89  89  86  86  86  86  89
20 FT Wind Dir....  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  8   9   10  10  10  10  11  11  11  11  11  11
20 FT Wind Gust...  12  13  14  14  14  14  16  16  17  16  16  16
Mix Hgt (kft).....  1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
Transp Wind Dir...  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp Wind Spd...  15  16  16  16  16  16  17  18  20  18  18  17
LVORI.............  3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI...............  24  24  24  28  28  28  35  35  35  32  32  32
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Jurewicz
Requested by...Shannon Henry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413058.0/CTP
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL shannon@silvixforestry.com