National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDDC 190725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (40-60%) continue late tonight into early
  Saturday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures expected Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

WV imagery indicates a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure
is spreading southeast across the Dakotas into the Central Plains.

Rain chances (40-60%) continue for portions of western Kansas late
tonight as the SREF indicates a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting
east out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains
downstream of an upper level shortwave trough transitioning through
the Desert Southwest. Although moisture/instability will be fairly
limited, the potential for light rain picks up late in the period
as mid-level moisture associated with the approaching system moves
out of the Rockies, interacting with minimal H7 frontogenetic forcing
in conjunction with a weak frontal boundary dropping southward out
of southwest Nebraska into western Kansas. The best chance for very
minimal precip amounts at best looks to be across west central and
central Kansas where the HREF paints only a 10 to 20% probability
of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch. Below normal temperatures
are forecast again today with a colder air mass slow to erode as
surface high pressure slides southeast through eastern Kansas,
setting up a southeasterly upslope flow in western Kansas. With
the HREF showing a 90 to 100% probability of temperatures exceeding
55F, but only a 20 to 40% probability exceeding 60F, look for highs
pushing the lower 60s(F) this afternoon. Expect lows tonight back
down into the mid/upper 30s(F) to near 40F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Lingering rain chances (20-40%) early Saturday are forecast to
dwindle through the evening with drier conditions taking hold to
finish out the weekend Sunday into early Monday as medium range
ensembles indicate an upper level shortwave trough pushing east
through Texas while a broad surface high sliding southeast through
the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas reinforces a much
drier air mass across the region. Well below normal temperatures are
expected Saturday as the aforementioned surface high settles in,
holding H85 temperatures well below 10C. With the NBM 4.1 showing
only a 20-40% probability of temperatures exceeding 50F, look for
highs only up into the 40s(F) in west central Kansas to the 50s(F)
farther east in south central Kansas. A significant warming trend is
likely into the early part of next week as departing surface high
pressure gives way to prevailing southerlies by Monday when the
NBM 4.1 paints an 80 to 90% probability of highs exceeding 80F in
extreme southwest Kansas to only a 20-30% probability in central
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites during the
period. Light east-northeast winds overnight will turn more southeasterly
generally after 12-14Z as a small area of high pressure moves southeast
through the plains of eastern Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson