Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000
FXUS63 KDDC 120700
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today with slightly weaker winds. Elevated fire by Elkhart.
- Hot over the weekend with higher fire danger.
- Next major weather system moves across the CWFA Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024
Another warm one today is expected with above normal temperatures.
Highs today should reach the mid to upper 70s north to lower 80s
south. The lee trough will slightly weaken through the day, so southerly
winds 10 to 20 mph will continue for much of the day for the FA.
Given the marginal winds, the overall fire weather danger today is
lower than compared to yesterday. If there were to be any low end/perhaps
elevated fire danger, it would be relegated to Elkhart. This is good
news as our area continues to see increasing drought conditions as
the earth continues to remain dry and parched. A light downslope
southwesterly wind is expected across the FA through Saturday morning.
The net result is above normal lows with values in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. The downslope pattern will only strengthen Saturday.
WAA with 850 hPa temperatures reaching well into the mid 20s will
set the stage for hot highs Saturday. Upper 80s to lower 90s will
be possible across the FA. With the hot highs comes increasing fire
danger across the FA. Elevated fire danger is likely during the day
and burning should be avoided.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024
The hot and dry weather pattern will continue Sunday. Hot highs with
values in the upper 80s to lower 80s looks likely. EPS has >90% probabilities
of highs >80F for the FA Sunday. This matches well with deterministic
data showing the well above normal highs. Will have to watch the
fire danger potential Sunday given this warmth. There is a chance
that the winds could remain marginal, which might help somewhat with
the fire danger. Something to continue to monitor.
Attention then turns to Monday. A strong synoptic low will eject out
across the plains during the day. Uncertainty is still pretty high
with this next major weather system. CIPS analogs shows two high
end severe weather analogs... however, it also shows other analogs
of low end events. The bottom line, it is way too early to speculate
on the exact specifics of severe storm potential. There is large
uncertainty in where the dryline will be located and if or not the
FA will get dryslotted (or partially). Obviously, in the warm sector
and east of the dryline, severe thunderstorms would be a concern
as forecast skew-t/log-p`s show plenty of speed and directional
shear and instability needed for supercells. At this point and with
the uncertainty, will stick with the NBM grids for now. Will continue
to watch both ensemble and deterministic runs for trends either into
a more robust severe threat or the other end of the spectrum
where we get dryslotted (or partially). Something to continue to
monitor.
Beyond Monday, the rest of the extended period might trend cooler
but really at more normal highs with probably dry conditions continuing.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
VFR expected through TAF pd. Southerly winds 10-20 kt today.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden