Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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759
FXUS63 KDDC 210739
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
239 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

...Updated Long term Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Visibilities falling quickly across northwest Kansas as winds
become light and variable. Expect similar conditions to develop
during the early morning hours across portions of west central and
possibly even north central Kansas. Given this along with where
some weak easterly up slope flow is expect around daybreak will
be issuing a Dense fog advisory early this morning for locations
north of a Garden City to Ness City line. This is where
confidence is highest at this time. Will continue to monitor how
the fog develops this morning and expand the Fog Advisory if
needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Dense fog should erode quickly this morning giving way to a
mostly sunny day. Models this morning showing a nice warm up today
in the 850mb temperatures with the general trend from NAM, GFS,
and ECMWF models all indicating a net 24 hour change of +8 to 10C
from 00z Monday to 00z Tuesday. Highs rebounding back into the 80s
still look on track based on this forecast warning trend.

Gusty south winds at 15 to 20 mph will also be returning to
western Kansas today as a trough of low pressure at the surface
deepens in response to our first in a series of upper level waves
that will move across the Western High Plains over the next
several days. This first upper wave will be associated with the
right entrance region of an upper level jet. Some isolated to
widely scattered convection will be possible late day near the
surface lee trough over eastern Colorado as this upper wave moves
out into the plains based on 0-1km moist conv along this boundary
and late day instability. 0-6KM shear to our west in Colorado
appears to be weak and at this time given the mean 700mb to 300mb
mean flow, locations of the instability axis west of our county
warning area, and weak shear am not sure if any of these storms
will last past sunset and even more unsure just how far east these
storms will survive in the evening. Previous grids currently have
small chances for convection near the Colorado border and can not
completely rule this out so will retain mention of storms here
early tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Late Tuesday our second in the series of upper level troughs will
approach southwest Kansas. Instability and shear late day not
appearing that impressive so severe thunderstorms are not
expected. Still given some moisture and lift ahead of this upper
wave there will still be a chance for some late day or evening
thunderstorms ahead of this upper wave as it crosses southwest
Kansas Tuesday night.

As the second upper level trough, embedded in the southwest flow,
crosses the Central Plains Tuesday night...the nearly stationary
upper low over southern California is forecast to begin to weaken
as it lifts northeast towards the northern Rockies. As the
weakening upper low/trough approaches the Rockies mid week the
surface boundary will deepen along the lee of the Rockies
resulting in stronger winds during the day. These gusty winds will
increase the fire risk levels. Also given warming in the 850 to
700 mb temperatures layer mid week the warming trend will
continue. Highs are expected to climb into at least the upper 80s
to lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday.

On Friday a cold front will cross western Kansas as the upper
level trough exits the Rockies and moves out into the Plains. This
will bring an end to the warming trend, however little if any
cooling is expected behind this frontal passage. Temperatures will
stay on the warm side with highs in the 80s and even some lower
90s being possible Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Light easterly upslope flow will continue overnight across western
Kansas and as temperatures fall back to near the dew point there
will be areas of fog developing during the overnight hours. Dense
fog will be the main challenge tonight and current confidence is
not high on where the lower visibilities and ceiling will
develop. Based on the latest HRRR,ARW,NMM and BUFR NAM soundings
am currently favoring the lower ceilings and visibilities to be
mainly between 09z and 15z Monday and the locations most favorable
for this dense fog will be in the Hays area and locations east
and north of Garden City. Patchy fog will be possible further
south early this morning but visibilities should stay above 1/2
mile. Will monitor this and adjust as need if these conditions
change.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  60  86  63 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  84  59  85  62 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  83  58  83  60 /  10  20  30  20
LBL  85  62  84  62 /   0  10  30  20
HYS  80  61  87  64 /  10  20  10  20
P28  82  62  89  66 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-031-
043>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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