Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190703
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

...Updated Long Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Currently seeing on radar widespread rain showers and
thunderstorms, but none of which are severe at this point in time
as some of the instability has been lost due to nocturnal cooling.
These storms are tracking to the northeast and based on radar,
look to be exiting the CWA in the next 4-5 hours. Mostly cloudy
skies will remain in the wake of these storms suppressing
cooling, but morning lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s for
the area to start the weekend off. The frontal boundary currently
draped across the CWA will track northward along the northern
counties later this morning associated with a surface low pushing
into central Kansas. Short term models are picking up on showers
and thunderstorms to develop late this morning and early afternoon
associated with this affecting the northern tier of counties
along the I-70 corridor. By late afternoon, these will clear out
and skies will as well with widely scattered high clouds
remaining. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid 70s
to the mid 80s northwest to southeast across the CWA due to less
cloud cover where there will be warmer temperatures and more sun.

The short wave trough affecting the region currently will continue
to propagate to the east and will be into central to east Kansas
Saturday night. A deep long wave trough will continue to deepen
over the west coast due to increased upper level divergence and
will slowly move eastward over the upcoming days, but ridging will
set in place across the Rocky Mountains and western high plains to
clear out any weather and precipitation chances through the rest
of the weekend. Sunday morning will see a cooler start to the day
with low temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s in wake of the
aforementioned cold frontal boundary currently affecting the CWA
and clearing skies allowing temperatures to drop lower than it has
been over the past week.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Sunday will see a nice change from what has been observed the past
week in regards to severe weather. Mostly clear skies and
comfortable relative humidity is expected with afternoon high
temperatures only in the low to mid 70s. This is due to an induced
upper level ridge that will push across the CWA with upper level
troughs up and down stream with a deepening trough over the
Pacific Coast that will be the next weather maker over the next
week. Winds will be low less than 10 mph out or the northeast to
east Sunday due to a weak pressure gradient across the area with
ridging streched across from a surface high over the Wyoming
territory. Low temperatures Sunday night will be comfortable in
the low to mid 50s with a potential of fog in some areas due to
all the rain that has been received and light upslope flow from
the easterly components.

Monday will start to see a revert back to the start of a severe
weather pattern once again as the aforementioned long wave trough
over the western coast pushes further eastward giving more of an
upper level southwest flow for western Kansas. This will help push
any subtle shortwaves through the area giving precipitation
chances every afternoon through Friday. All models show PoPs in
the 20s for all of next week, but the certainty is low this far
out from a severe weather standpoint needing all the ingredients
to make it happen. Southeast flow will return in the low levels
pumping that gulf moisture back into western Kansas along with the
exhaust in the upper levels with divergence aloft the closer the
aforementioned upper level trough pushes closer eastward.
Instability will be there with a good warming trend in store with
highs pushing back into the low 80s for Monday and uppper 80s to
low 90s for the rest of the week. Every afternoon will just need a
trigger to get thunderstorm development and based on the models,
a stationary boundary looks to set up across the high plains with
the dryline pushing east and west out of eastern Colorado. Again,
confidence is low at this point as to severe weather development
next week but expect a possibility of it all of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

All TAF locations are VFR in regards to ceilings and visibility.
Rain and thunderstorms have pushed out of LBL as seen on radar.
GCK and DDC is still seeing rain showers and thunderstorms in the
vicinity and looks to push out in the next hour or two. HYS is in
the thick of the thunderstorms as well and will finally have them
push out of the CWA by 10Z. There will be another chance of rain
and storms for HYS between 15-18Z on the backside of the surface
low across the northern tier of counties in the CWA. All other TAF
sites will not see this additional precipitation and will be
clearing out as time moves on throughout the day. By afternoon,
all sites will be VFR and only mid to high clouds visible with
winds out of the northwest for the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  82  51  72 / 100  20  20  10
GCK  57  78  48  70 /  80  20  10  10
EHA  56  81  47  74 /  50  20  20  10
LBL  59  82  49  74 /  60  20  20  10
HYS  60  79  51  68 /  90  30  20  10
P28  62  89  57  76 /  90  20  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Lowe



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