000
FXUS63 KDDC 210800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southwest winds and warm temperatures Monday afternoon
  will lead to fire weather concerns.

- Cold frontal passage early Tuesday will bring more strong
  winds, this time out of the north to northeast.

- Severe weather potential exists Thursday afternoon, but plenty
  of uncertainty remains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveals west-northwest flow is in place over the central plains
between weak ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over
the eastern CONUS. Embedded within this synoptic pattern is a
shortwave trough currently placed over central NE, which is
responsible for the current widespread cloud cover and light
drizzle across our area. As this feature continues to dig
southeast with time, reaching the Ozarks by 18Z Sunday, DNVA in
its wake will result in clouds eroding and strong solar
insolation beginning. This will support afternoon temperatures
warming into the low to mid 60s. Sunday night, short range
guidance indicates surface high pressure will slide southeast
as low pressure builds over the northern plains and central
Canada, fostering an increase in winds out of the southwest.
Radiational cooling will therefore be limited, and lows will be
in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Daytime Monday, the tight surface pressure gradient will be
maintained across southwest KS and combine with boundary layer
mixing to result in another windy spring day for our area.
Southwest winds will be sustained in the 25-35 mph range with
gusts up to 45 mph. These downsloping winds will also aid in a
substantial increase in temperatures as afternoon highs spike
into the upper 70s southeast to mid 80s northwest. These windy
and warm conditions engender fire weather concerns as well,
especially across the west and northwest zones where dewpoints
will be lowest. Although, the lowest dewpoints will be co-
located with the weakest winds. Nevertheless, fire weather
headlines may be forthcoming.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Monday night into Tuesday morning, medium range ensembles
suggest an upper level shortwave trough will dig from the
northern plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region,
sending a cold front southward through the central plains early
Tuesday morning. Strong north to northeast post-frontal winds
will spread across southwest KS daytime Tuesday, sustained in
the 20-30 mph range with gusts up to 40 mph, bringing cooler
temperatures as afternoon highs stay in the 70s. An off-chance
of precipitation may accompany this frontal passage, favoring
the northeast zones, but this seems unlikely, and pops were
limited to the slight chance category (15-24%). On Wednesday,
upper level ridging will move over the High Plains as the next
trough begins to impinge on the far southwest CONUS. Gusty
southeasterly winds will return as lee troughing rebuilds across
eastern CO, but Wednesday will be otherwise quiet with afternoon
highs in the 70s.

12Z Thursday, ensembles suggest the upper level trough will be
located over the Desert Southwest, and eject rapidly northeast
through the morning and early afternoon, reaching the central
Rockies by 00Z Friday. In response, the lee cyclone in eastern
CO will deepen to ~990-mb, with cyclonic flow around it
supporting significant theta-e advection over southwest KS.
The strong kinematic environment ahead of the trough and
improving thermodynamics imply a severe thunderstorm risk may
materialize for portions of our area, and the Storm Prediction
Center does outline roughly the eastern 2/3rds of our area in a
15% risk area. However 700-mb temperatures of +8C and potential
morning showers/convection cast considerable doubt on any
severe weather prospects.

In the wake of this wave Friday and Saturday, medium range
ensembles suggest upper level shortwave ridging will dominate
the weather across southwest KS as the next trough takes shape
over the western CONUS. Generally quiet weather can be expected
these days, with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Infrared satellite imagery reveals widespread VFR broken cloud
cover over southwest KS. As temperatures cool overnight, cigs
will steadily drop and reach MVFR for a handful of hours from
early to mid-morning Sunday across DDC, GCK, and LBL. By late
morning Sunday, a weak upper level shortwave ridge will help in
eroding the cloud deck entirely, and skies should be clear by
sunset. Otherwise, winds will remain light and variable for much
of the period, with only a minor uptick to aoa 10 kts out of
the south towards the end of the TAF cycle.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer