Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150448
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1148 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Focus today is on the current system diving through northeast Kansas
and the Missouri valley. The High Wind Warning remains in effect
through the evening with high confidence in strong gusts continuing
due to deep layer momentum transfer of the 850-700 mb wind layer
winds in excess of 50 knots. Any more bands of snow will be limited
to narrow (10-20 mi wide) corridors of light snow or flurries,
enough to drop visibility to around a mile briefly in the northeast
sections of the area (central KS counties). The gradient winds will
behave very differently from the the northeast sections to the
southwest sections this evening; going light near the Colorado line
fairly early, while remaining strong through much of the overnight
across central Kansas. Stratus may redevelop back southwest again
as the BL cools this evening. Redevelopment of mixing on Sunday
morning will increase wind speeds around 20-25 knots sustained
before weakening with the loss of gradient in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

A mid/upper level ridge will move across the area Monday and Monday
night, and be progressive as the next weather maker for the
Plains moves through rapidly eastward Tuesday night. A surface low
will develop over eastern Kansas and lift quickly into the corn
belt, as GFS and ECMWF leave western KS in the dry slot with
precipitation not developing until the surface low and upper low
become more tied into a baroclinic system over the Missouri
valley.

The GFS and ECMWF show potential for rain/and or severe weather
on Friday. GFS is more conducive to a severe wx/tornado pattern
with a 500 mb upper low over eastern CO, placing the warm front
over west central Kansas, while the EC is similar, but farther
south and colder, in the TX panhandle and western OK. Timing of
the upper low looks somewhat slow as well, possibly lending
opportunity for multiple rounds of precipitation over about a 24
hour period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

MVFR ceilings will be found over the HYS terminal through the next
couple of hours. Otherwise expect vfr conditions to prevail with
mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be from a northerly
direction over 10 knots throughout the night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

For the rest of today, any grassfire will become difficult to contain
given the high winds across the region alone, although relative
humidity will be nowhere near red flag criterion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  56  27  74 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  19  58  28  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  66  37  83 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  22  64  32  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  19  47  21  64 /  10   0   0   0
P28  24  56  27  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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