Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
345 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed very well-structured mid
latitude cyclone deepening across far west central Kansas. Mid level
dry intrusion was nosing up into northwest Kansas as the mid level
potential vorticity anomaly was making its way across far southwest
Kansas. Wrap-around shower activity was pushing into the far western
counties from Baca-Prowers County, CO. This axis of shower activity
is expected to wane through 13-14Z, and will carry 20-30 POPs in the
far west for this. Very strong winds in the 35 to 50 mph range will
likely accompany these early morning showers, with perhaps an
isolated gust to 60 mph.

Later on today, once insolation sets in, the boundary layer will
deepen and we will start to mix down some 40 to 50 knot winds to the
surface in gusts out of the northwest. The High Wind Warning remains
in effect. The NAM model appears to be too weak with kinematics as
compared to the GFS and ECMWF, thus is discounted. We added a few
more counties to the HWW (Ness, Pawnee, Stafford, Pratt), especially
considering that the latest ECMWF continues to maintain near 65
knots at 700mb. As far as temperatures go this afternoon, there
should be a fairly decent gradient from lower 50s up in Scott County
to lower 70s across southern Barber County this afternoon.

By sunset, winds will decrease markedly to around 15 mph, with a
further decrease through the late night hours. Clearing sky and
light winds will allow temperatures to bottom out in the upper 20s
to around 30 most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

A very intriguing forecast for Sunday Night and Monday. There is now
increasing confidence in at least a moderate precipitation event
across a fair portion of southwest Kansas...and if the past couple
runs of the ECMWF hold any weight (which it usually does!), then
potentially major precipitation event. The ECMWF remains the
farthest south and strongest solution with respect to the 500mb low
development. In fact, it has a 500mb low deepening from 548 to 541
decameters to the south of southwest Kansas late Sunday through
early Monday. This would be a classic path along with deepening at
the right time for southwest Kansas heavy precipitation. It is no
surprise, then, that the ECMWF is showing a large area of 1-inch
plus QPF from DDC to HYS and surrounding region. It is important
to note, however (and this cannot be stressed enough!), that this
track forecast is still subject to change, and if the ECMWF
trends more toward the northern GFS solution and/or speeds up then
much less precipitation will occur over southwest Kansas.
Nevertheless, official POP and QPF grids continue to increase.
Some folks (and maybe a lot?) across Kansas are going to see a
very nice amount of rain with this storm as it appears to be
shaping up given the vast amount of upward vertical motion with
such a deepening, compact mid level cyclone. Portions of south
central and even southwest KS will see thunderstorms as well on
Sunday Night. As the nose of some lower 50s dewpoints pull back
northwestward, MUCAPE will increase and it is distinctly possible
we could see a marginally severe storm or two across far southern
Kansas, perhaps including our southeastern counties.

After this storm passes by Monday Night, we will see temperatures
slowly climb back through the 50s (Tuesday), 60s (Wednesday), and
eventually lower 70s by Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Winds will be the main story this TAF period as they veer around
from the current south direction to the northwest later on today.
We will be seeing high wind conditions with sustained speeds of 30
to 35 knots and gusts to around 50 knots at times at DDC and GCK
during the afternoon. This will probably lead to some patchy
blowing dust which may affect DDC and GCK terminals with reduced
visibility below 6 miles, although confidence in visibility
reduction is not high enough to include in this TAF. Otherwise,
VFR flight category is expected, even at HYS, as precipitation and
any ceiling should remain well to the north toward southern


DDC  61  31  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  58  29  65  37 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  67  33  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  67  32  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  29  60  35 /  20   0   0   0
P28  71  34  64  38 /   0   0   0   0


High Wind Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043>045-061>066-074>081.

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074>078-080-081-084>090.



SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.