Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260518
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Cold temperatures will create negative impacts overnight as recent
rains have primed the surface layer for frost potential. The area
will be between 2 systems late tonight and early Friday morning,
allowing very dry mid level air, with excellent longwave radiation
potential from a moist ground. Most of the model output drops lows
into the low 30s, or mid 30s at least. Frost in low lying areas is
all but a certainty and frost may be more widespread in areas
especially if winds are lighter, more on the MOS side than model.

A secondary northwest flow shortwave will be dropping south east in
the day on Thursday, bringing and increase in high and mid level
clouds, and possible a few instability showers/sprinkles across
central Kansas. Another cool and cloudy day is expected Thursday as
a result of the system. Temperatures should warm through the 60s in
the afternoon, slowed by cold advection in the afternoon as the next
cold front brings in northerly 20 to 30 mph surface winds, remaining
breezy through much of Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Friday through Sunday will bring waring trend as a mid level thermal
ridge sets up over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. By Monday
models, have shown some possibility of convective instability and
convergence for dryline thunderstorms, as well as warmer
temperatures well into the 80s. Sunday and Monday should both be
windy days with southerly surface winds in excess of the old wind
advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Winds will be light from the south to southwest through the overnight
and early morning hours. A strong cold front will move through the
terminals during the mid morning to midday hours. Winds will increase
sharply from the north gusts to 30-35 knots behind the front during
the afternoon. Some VFR cigs are expected especially closer to central
Kansas. There could also be a few post-frontal showers in the area
but coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Unfortunately the fire weather risk will again deteriorate through
eh weekend with elevated fire risk Saturday and Sunday, followed by
potential for extreme risk in the west, behind the dryline on Monday
afternoon. Warmer temperatures driving down RH values coupled with 20
to 30 mph southerly surface winds; likely red flag conditions during
the timeframe.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  66  35  70 /   0  20   0   0
GCK  34  63  32  70 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  37  63  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  35  65  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  35  62  35  70 /   0  20   0   0
P28  38  70  39  71 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>080-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Russell


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