Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251050
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
550 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Overnight water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed fairly potent
shortwave trough extending from central Nebraska southwest into the
Colorado Rockies, with greatest forcing for ascent pushing southeast
across south central Kansas into the Texas Panhandle and adjacent
western and northern Oklahoma. The back edge of the rain as of 0840z
extended from near Pratt to Liberal, with the rain likely ending in
the far southeastern counties not long after sunrise. The cooler
airmass in place behind this storm system will lead to temperatures
topping out in the upper 50s to around 60 most locations. A north to
northwest wind will remain in the 15 to 20 mph range as well, as the
850mb gradient remains despite weakening MSLP gradient.

For tonight, winds will weaken and with a clearing sky, temperatures
will likely bottom out in the lower 30s, especially
northern/northwestern third of the forecast area. We decided against
issuing a frost/freeze headline given low confidence in widespread
32F or less lows, but the next shift will need to consider at the
very least a frost advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Another strong cold front (mainly in terms of winds) will push south
on Thursday, and this will lead to sustained winds in the 25-35 mph
range with higher gusts. The best time frame for strongest winds
will be late morning through mid afternoon and mainly focused on the
western half of the forecast area (west of U283). A surface high
will build in quick behind this front late Thursday Night, and this
Thursday Night/Friday Morning period will be of greater concern for
more widespread freezing temperatures. Even though the latest grids
reflect a low of 31 to 34F over the northwestern half of the
forecast area Friday morning, there are some increasing concerns
that upper 20s may occur across a fair portion of far west central
and/or southwest Kansas, so this will need to be watched.

That should be it for the cool weather, as the remainder of the Long
Term period will be quite warm, especially late weekend into early
next week as we finally see a pattern shift toward southwest flow
aloft across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, leading to much
warmer temperatures. That much we feel pretty confident about, but
the synoptic details of perturbations within this longer wave
pattern change are highly unclear, as the 3 major global spectral
model solutions all show a different scenario with individual
jetlets through the pattern. These would have an influence on how
far west low level moisture can make it back into western Kansas in
addition to the degree of low level convergence for severe local
storms. Regardless though, the overall atmospheric setting going
into early to mid next week will shift more toward typical mid-
spring weather with severe local storm risk around or nearby
(Central Great Plains) some of the days next week, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Lingering MVFR ceiling mainly at HYS and LBL will eventually give
way to VFR by mid morning at the latest. Otherwise, aviation
weather will be much improved today. North winds will be around 15
knots much of the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  34  66  35 /  10   0  10   0
GCK  60  34  63  32 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  62  37  64  34 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  60  35  66  34 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  59  35  63  35 /  20   0  10   0
P28  56  37  70  38 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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