Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240552
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Upper system now over the Northern Rockies will be the main driver
of a colder airmass across western and central Kansas Tuesday. The
NAM/WRF pushes the front into the Hays-Garden-Elkhart corridor as
early as mid morning, and then through the entire area by mid
afternoon. Cape is generally weak to mostly non-existent in most
model output, however an 850 mb level warm advection signal with
even very weak MUCAPE in the afternoon should be sufficient for a
few thunderstorms. With expected cloudy/showery sensible weather,
favored the cooler consensus of MOS for most elements, which may
limit highs to the upper 40s/low 50s. High uncertainty exists in
the amount of precipitation from this system with overall lack of
forcing.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Freezing temperatures cannot be ruled out in the western sections
Wednesday morning following the frontal passage Tuesday night.
However, much will depend on the westward expansiveness of the
stratus layer as not a lot of cold air is in place. Much of the
model output at this point keep the area well above freezing.

A second cold front on Thursday is shown by the GFS and ECMWF.
However the better dynamics for precipitation are too far removed
north from our already moisture lacking region. So the northerly
breezy conditions will do little more than help create an elevated
fire risk for parts of the area (western sections most likely) and
hold highs mainly in the 60s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Poor aviation weather will develop through this period, mainly in
the form of MVFR (and periodic IFR) flight category and increasing
rain coverage especially at the end of this period. The cold front
will be pushing through in the 15-18z time frame at all the
terminals, with winds increasing to around 20+ knots, 30kt in
gusts for a few hours immediately behind the front. North winds
will likely stabilize in the 15 to 18 knot range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Cooler temps and subsequent "not as low" daily min relative
humidities will limit the fire weather risk over the next couple
of days. Fire weather risk will be much more elevated by the
weekend, as temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s, reducing
afternoon RH, with breezy south winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  56  38  57 /  10  60  60  20
GCK  44  49  36  58 /  20  60  50  20
EHA  44  50  37  60 /  10  40  40  20
LBL  45  52  38  60 /  10  60  60  20
HYS  46  54  38  55 /  10  70  30  30
P28  50  64  43  58 /   0  40  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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