Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260913
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
413 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Updated short term, long term and fire weather discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Early morning temperatures had fallen into the mid/upper 30s in
most locations with dewpoints generally in the low to mid 30s.
These conditions will be ripe for frost development through
sunrise so will continue the current frost headline through
expiration time.

Current satellite loops and analysis show the next 500 millibar
shortwave trough currently moving through western South Dakota and
Wyoming early this morning. The associated cold front was pushing
south through northeast Colorado. The front will cross western
Kansas this morning and should be exiting south central Kansas
later this afternoon. 00z models continue to show some some widely
scattered showers developing mainly eastern portions of southwest
Kansas into central/south central Kansas this afternoon. While there
is some very limited instability in south central Kansas, think
that the best potential for any thunder should be south of the
forecast area into Oklahoma.

The shortwave trough moves through the area this afternoon and
early evening. Any chance for precipitation should end or move
south of the forecast area by sunset with skies becoming clear.
Surface high pressure will move south through the central High
Plains tonight with the gusty north winds diminishing with sunset
and becoming light west to southwest overnight. Will continue the
trend of going below MOS guidance and keep low temperatures in the
low to mid 30s over much of the area tonight. This should set the
stage for another round of frost. Coordinated with surrounding
offices that are currently issuing frost/freeze headlines and the
consensus was to hold off on another advisory for now and let the
next shift issue it.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Upper level ridging will build back over the central High Plains
which will bring warmer temperatures into the 70s and 80s back to
western Kansas this weekend.

The first half of next week will see upper level troughing develop
over western North America with increasing southwesterly flow over
the central High Plains. Both the GFS and ECMWF show moist southerly
flow developing from Texas to Kansas with a dryline developing from
western Kansas to west Texas Monday and Tuesday. While details on
the location of the dryline are still uncertain, confidence in the
possibility of some severe thunderstorms continues to increase for
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Winds will be light from the south to southwest through the overnight
and early morning hours. A strong cold front will move through the
terminals during the mid morning to midday hours. Winds will increase
sharply from the north gusts to 30-35 knots behind the front during
the afternoon. Some VFR cigs are expected especially closer to central
Kansas. There could also be a few post-frontal showers in the area
but coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs at this time.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

North winds gusting over 40 mph are expected behind a cold front
moving through the region this morning. Relative humidity levels
are expected to only drop to around 30 percent this afternoon but
given the gusty winds and minimal greenup, elevated fire weather
conditions will be possible today, especially along and west of
Highway 83.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  35  73  42 /  20  10   0   0
GCK  64  32  72  41 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  63  35  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  66  35  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  66  35  73  40 /  20   0   0   0
P28  70  39  73  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>080-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard



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