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000
FXUS63 KDDC 142320
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
620 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire danger/severe weather possible on Monday

- High winds and blowing dust likely on Tuesday

- Temperatures trending cooler towards the end of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

18z observations and RAP upper air analysis show a large upper
low spinning through much of California and Nevada with the jet
stream ahead of the low producing a ridge in the central plains.
This has led to plenty of sunshine all across the region.
Afternoon temperatures have already reached into the upper 80s
to lower 90s and Dodge City has already set a record high of 92
(as of this discussion) at 1 PM.

Tonight the upper low will track into central Utah and the nose
of the jet streak will move into central Colorado which will
start to deepen a surface low in northeast Colorado to around
998 mb by sunrise. Winds at the surface in response to the low
will start to turn more to the south to southeast and moisture
advection into our eastern zones should bring in an area of
stratus clouds and dewpoint temperatures reaching into the upper
50s to lower 60s. With the areas of moisture in our eastern
zones lows should fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s and lows in
the west will fall into the 40s.

Monday the main topic of interest will be the fire danger, wind,
and areas of patchy blowing dust. Fire threat looks greatest
along and west of highway 283 where a red flag warning is in
effect. Winds will increase through the day as the surface low
deepens in northeast Colorado to 989 mb and the nose of the
upper jet will enter into southwest Kansas by the late
afternoon. Wind speeds should increase to 20-30 mph with gusts
to 40 mph and humidity values will fall to 10%. With such dry
soils this will also lead to another good setup for some blowing
dust. East of 283 the moisture should stick around much of the
day to mitigate the fire danger somewhat.

Monday night will be the main time of the severe threat. At this
point there is low confidence in the amount and coverage of
storms but high confidence that any storms that develop will
become severe. Many of the short term models and ensembles are
showing the greatest lift with the upper low will be moving in
around 9-10 pm. The low level jet will increase after 7 pm and
advect moisture to the northwest that the dryline should retreat
to somewhere between US 283 and K-23 corridors. Many of the CAMs
are struggling with initiating storms along the dryline until
after 10 pm and perhaps closer to midnight. Any storms that do
develop will have plentiful 0-6 km shear (>50 kts) and CAPE
(>1500 j/KG) that large to giant hail can be expected with any
storm along with strong winds and an isolated tornado. The storm
mode will most likely be briefly supercell and then quick
upscale growth into a squall line along the dry line. Time frame
of storms between US 283 to the US 281 corridors will be
between 10 pm and 3 am. With the way the setup is looking at
this point there is at least 30-40% chance we may not see much
if any storm activity at all given how many short term models
and CAMs are struggling to initiate convection. With the quick
movement of the dry air from west to east we should be done with
storm activity by 3 am.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tuesday will present a high likelihood of strong northwest
winds with high wind criteria possible. Through the day on
Tuesday the surface to 500 mb low will slowly move through
southern Nebraska and a sharp pressure gradient will be across
western Kansas especially for areas along the Colorado border.
EPS and GEFS ensembles have 100% chance of sustained winds over
20 kts and wind gusts over 34 kts are also at 100% with wind
gusts reaching high wind criteria (50 kts) at 30-40% for areas
along and west of highway 83. Given the strong winds and dry
soils another round of blowing dust will be possible all day
long. Lift along the western side of the low could also lead to
some spotty rain showers mainly along and north of K-96 however
rainfall totals should stay under 0.1 inch (> 90% chance).

For the rest of the week the trend will be cooling temperatures
and perhaps at the end of the long term some frost Sunday
morning. A large upper low in the Canadian prairies will
overspread colder air through the northern and central plains
Thursday through Sunday. With some 700 mb shortwaves and cold
fronts there are some small chances of rain (~20%) along and
north of I-70 on Thursday and across western Kansas on Saturday.
For Sunday the long range ensembles have 0% chance of
temperatures falling below 32 for Sunday morning however the
NBMv4.1 is picking up on a cold high pressure center in the
central plains and clear skies and has put in lows at 30-32
along and north of a Liberal to Larned line so we will have to
monitor to see if the growing season will be getting a mid-late
April frost.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals.
Generally light southeast winds aoa 12 kts will continue through
the remainder of the evening and overnight hours. Shortly after
sunrise Monday morning, winds will veer to southerly as they
increase substantially, reaching the 25-30 kt range with gusts
up to 40 kts by early afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Springer