Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

A fairly substantial change in the forecast for today...for the
snowier. The latest short term high resolution models are latching
on nicely to a wet snow event for at least the first half of the day
behind the departing upper low. There will be a large wrap-around
region of light to moderate accumulating precipitation in the mid
level deformation zone, even quite a distance west of the actual
upper low center as it pushes east into southwest MO this afternoon.
Radar trends as of 0815 UTC were starting to match the HRRR model
prediction of southward expanding deformation zone precip back into
southwest Kansas. Colder air will continue to filter in as well,
with the rain-snow line pushing quickly southeast during the morning
hours. The WRF runs and HRRR all suggest wet snow as far south as
the Ark River. The latest forecast will now call for a wet
accumulation of 1 to 3 inches across mainly Lane-Ness-Trego-Ellis
counties, with up to an inch farther south toward the Ark River.
After collaborating with WFO GLD and GID, will issue a winter
weather advisory for the 1 to 3 inch snowfall forecast for the four
above mentioned counties. This forecast really hinges on
precipitation rates, as higher precip rates will help keep the
boundary layer just cold enough for snow to reach the surface before
melting. Lower precipitation rates (particularly farther south) will
likely prevent the necessary dynamic cooling to offset mid-late
March insolation (even though it will obviously be indirect
insolation). Snowfall will start to wane or perhaps even change back
to rain later in the afternoon as precip rates decrease and slowly
come to an end.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Given the large degree of time and energy devoted to the Short Term
forecast challenge, not much emphasis was put on the Long Term
section. Of greatest interest in the Long Term will be increasing
temperatures by late week, and even borderline hot on Friday with
some upper 80s to around 90F forecast in a rather classic southwest
downslope regime. Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions
will likely develop Friday as a result of the very warm temperatures
and increased southwest winds. A very low amplitude wave will eject
out of the southwest flow pattern late Friday into Saturday, with
attendant precipitation event confined to areas north of southwest
Kansas. Cooler air will push back into western Kansas for the
weekend, and this fresh frontal zone across the Central and Southern
Plains may be the focus for increased precipitation potential going
into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

NAM and RAP BUFR soundings indicating current IFR and MVFR
ceilings across western Kansas will slowly improve but not much
through 00z Tuesday. Ceilings will not get any lower than what
they were at 17z UTC. The low ceilings will to give way to
clearing skies from west to east between 03z and 09z Tuesday.
Gusty north winds at around 20 knots this afternoon will fall back
to 10 to 15 knots between 00z and 03z Tuesday. The winds will
continue to decrease overnight as a surface ridge axis builds into
western Kansas after midnight.


DDC  39  25  59  30 / 100   0   0   0
GCK  41  23  59  28 /  20  10   0   0
EHA  49  25  60  30 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  46  25  62  30 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  35  24  52  28 / 100  40   0   0
P28  45  31  58  31 / 100  10   0   0


Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-



SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.